Swiss National Bank expected to resist global rate-hike trend: Reuters poll -Breaking
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© Reuters. This is a general view of the Swiss National Bank building in Zurich (Switzerland), March 7, 2022. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann(Corrects currency for 5th graf; no other changes.
ZURICH (Reuters). Reuters analysts believe that the Swiss National Bank will continue to hold steady to the lowest interest rate in the world when it releases its latest monetary policy update Thursday. This is in contrast to a rising trend among other central banks around the globe, as per Reuters polling.
The SNB is expected to maintain its policy rate at minus 0.75 percent, according to 33 of the economists who were polled. However, any change by any respondent was not anticipated until September.
While the currency franc rose to parity with the euro in recent times, it was not expected that the central bank would change from the ultra-expansive policy of the past seven years.
GianLuigi Mendruzzato, economist at EFG Bank, stated that “Parity” is more popular among analysts and financial commentators, than for central banks, which look more at the fundamentals.
Because of the enormous inflation differential of the last 12 to18 months, “our model for fair worth is one franc purchasing slightly more than 0.90 euro.” The SNB doesn’t see the issue with the recent rise in the Franc.
Thomas Jordan, the Chairman of SNB, is expected to resist any pressures to raise rates in order to counter Swiss inflation. The rate hike was prompted by 2.2% hitting February. That’s higher than the SNB’s 0-2% target. It also marks its highest point since 2008.
SNB’s position is helped by the fact that, although Swiss prices have increased, they are not at the same levels seen in Britain, the United States or the Euro zone. These countries have seen recent inflation reaching 5.9%, 5.5%, and 7.9% respectively.
Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for only the second time since 2018. The Bank of England also increased its rate.
The majority of analysts (10 out 14) expected that the SNB would wait until the European Central Bank raises interest rates before raising its own. Currently, the market expects two rate rises from the ECB for this year.
Capital Economics, David Oxley said that although Swiss inflation rose higher than 2% in February 2008 for the first-time since Oct 2008, its low level means Swiss policymakers feel less pressured to tighten policies.
The majority of analysts expect that the SNB will keep the description of the Franc “highly value” and may increase verbal interventions or foreign currency purchases.
Oxley said that the SNB would keep interest rates steady at -0.75% for this year. However, Oxley said that the SNB would likely take advantage of the global backdrop which is more hawkish and allow the ECB to reverse its aggressive policy footing. Policymakers are expected to raise the policy rates to zero before the year 2023.
(Polling done by Prerana Bhat and Sujith Pai, Reporting by John Revill, Editing by Bernadettebaum)
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