(Reuters] – A decrease in defaults last year in a small group of student loans in the U.S. that was not covered by a program during the COVID-19 epidemic signals problems for 37 million loan holders when that program expires, according to a New York Federal Reserve analysis.

The forbearance program covers borrowers who haven’t been required to pay their loans in the past three months. However, the suspension of repayments will expire at April.

According to the New York Fed, $195 billion in payments were waived during this period.

In a second pool, about 10,000,000 loans were provided through private sources or the Federal Family Education Loans (FFEL). These borrowers have struggled to pay their debts over the last two years. Particularly since March 2013, FFEL borrowers’ default rates have been rising and they returned to their pre-pandemic level by December.

The delinquency rates among those borrowers that were eligible for the two-year program of forbearance fell to 3.6% last year.

This is bad news for people who were covered under the program and had lower credit scores, higher debt amounts and made less progress in repayments before the pandemic.

In a blog posting, New York Fed economists stated that they believe borrowers will experience an increase in defaults, for both student loans as well as other debts, after forbearance has ended.