Russia’s ‘war of attrition’ with Ukraine where nobody wins
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An unidentified Ukrainian soldier is seen standing on the frontline, close to Kyiv, on March 20, 2022.
Genya Savilov | AFP | Getty Images
The unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine is now in its fourth week. It’s clear that neither Moscow nor Kyiv will be able to win or lose the conflict easily.
Russian President Vladimir PutinMost believe that he invaded Ukraine with the intention of capturing it quickly. However, he underestimated resistance from Ukraine and the thousands of volunteers civilian fighters who were ready to take on his cause.
The Russians have so far only taken Kherson. While a much-feared attack on Kyiv remains to be launched, Kharkiv the second-largest capital city continues to resist the Russians and Lviv the western city is relatively safe.
The Russian invasion has nonetheless unleashed widespread destruction on parts of the country and cities that are vital for Ukraine’s economic wellbeing, like Mariupol — a key port city for Ukraine from which it exports grain and steel among other goods — which is still under siege and heavily destroyed.
With Russia making little headway in its wider overall invasion and Ukraine battling to concede as little territory and vital infrastructure as possible, the conflict quickly risks becoming a “war of attrition,” analysts say — essentially, a prolonged struggle in which both sides seek to exhaust the opponent through the gradual loss of personnel, equipment and supplies.
“The war in Ukraine is likely heading towards a grinding war scenario — a stalemate phase during which both sides have limited ability to conduct offensive operations while the devastation and human suffering continues,” Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at Teneo Intelligence, said in a note this week.
Tursa observed that Russia is still moving slowly in its offensive. He also noted that Moscow has been resorting to “more brutal warfare tactics” (mainly aerial missile, artillery and artillery bombardment), to target civilian infrastructure and non-military assets to crush public morale.
According to him, this was illustrated by Russian forces striking large food storage centers and shopping malls, like the one that was destroyed Monday in Kyiv. See also this photo below. The Kremlin denied that they target civilians.
This aerial view shows the destroyed shopping centre after Russian bombardment in Kyiv, Ukraine (March 21, 2022).
Emin Sansar | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Tursa shared the concern of other strategists and analysts. He warned that a pressurized Russian army might resort to greater destruction in order to maintain the campaign’s existence. This would test the will and resolve of both the Ukrainians as well as the West. The West has promised to supply arms to Ukraine, but refused direct intervention, fearing an imminent confrontation with Russia.
The losses are increasing
According to the Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, roughly 15300 Russian soldiers have been killed by Russian forces since February 24, when the Kremlin began its offensive. However, CNBC cannot independently confirm these numbers.
Russia stated on March 2nd that 498 soldiers had been killed during fighting. However, it has not given an update.
Komsomolskaya Pravda, the pro-Kremlin Russian newspaper reported Monday, citing Russia’s Defense Ministry that 9861 Russian soldiers were killed since the start of war. It later removed the article, alleging it was hack.
If these figures for Ukraine are true, however, it is likely that the Russian number of soldiers who have been killed in the ill-fated Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 will be the same. It led to an ineligible 10-year conflict that saw 15,000 Soviet soldiers die and Moscow gain very little.
War of Attrition: “The sustained process of wearing down an opponent so as to force their physical collapse through continuous losses in personnel, equipment and supplies or [wearing] them down to such an extent that their will to fight collapses.”
International Encyclopedia of the First World War
A ‘War of Attrition,’ as defined by the dictionary
Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group president, said in a note Monday that, short of a Russian mass mobilization and a continuous flow of equipment and personnel to the frontline fighting — which Putin isn’t presently ordering — the coming weeks of ground fighting aren’t likely to change much for the Russians.
The Russians have suffered heavy losses due to the fighting, more than all the U.S. losses over 20 years in fighting in Iraq or Afghanistan combined. This includes a large number of top military officers in the field. Bremmer indicated that Russia is not considering capturing Kyiv, but the Ukrainians were encouraged by Russian troubles in the field and international support.
Bremmer believes that Russia is in its best interests if Putin withdraws all troops. But, Bremmer noted that Russia would lose its status as an energy superpower and suffer a crippled economy. Its smartest citizens will have left, with its currency being destroyed.
Putin’s ‘desperateness’
Also, there are concerns that Putin with his back against the wall, as President Joe Biden put it Monday, might resort to chemical weapons in Ukraine to win the war, regardless of the human cost.
Russia claims it doesn’t attack civilians, and that they are not planning to use chemical weapons. CNBC has been directed by Russia’s Ministry of Defense previously to report on a statement made more than two years ago that stated, in part: “Using high-precision weapons only”, Russian forces strike military targets.
There is overwhelming evidence in video, photographic, and other forms of documentation that Russia has been attacking civilian targets with unguided weaponry. Official assessments by the U.S., U.K., and others also show this. This week has seen more destruction and death with the ongoing attacks on Mariupol and thousands of Ukrainians still trapped in that city.
Russian troops surround the besieged city. Water, electricity and food supplies are running short for days. This raises questions about how long Ukrainian forces will hold on to the city. Russia’s key strategic objective is to establish a land corridor linking Crimea with areas controlled by pro-Russian separatists. The city serves as a major export hub for Ukraine.
Michal Baranowski said that “it’s definitely an attrition war,” but it wasn’t a “frozen conflict” by any means.
It’s an impasse in which Ukrainians continue to die. That’s why Western support remains very important, however, Russia’s strategic goals are not being achieved. Putin is desperate. He’s not winning, and he has the upper hand. That’s why all of us are worried about chemical weapons. It would lead to a horrible escalation.
His main goal was to ensure that war doesn’t escalate, that war ends and Russia leaves Ukraine.
Is this the end of it?
Ukraine is a country that has received much praise for resisting Russia’s army, its mass bombardment, siege tactics, and the what appears to have been the targeted of civilian infrastructure including hospitals, residential buildings and, more recently, the theater where hundreds were sheltering.
Over 3.5 million people have fled UkraineHowever, hundreds of civilians were killed.
Volodymyr Zeleskyy, President of Ukraine, has appealed worldwide to all leaders, especially those from Europe and the U.S. to send more weapons to Ukraine as well to tighten sanctions on Russia’s already sanctioned economy.
Standing ovations are given to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president. He addresses the German Bundestag live from Kyiv on March 17th 2022.
Hannibal Hanschke | Getty Images
Zelenskyy, who warned his country that it was on the “brink of survival” during the conflict, told the Italian Parliament via video link Tuesday that Russia will not stop at Ukraine. This caused some eyebrow-raising as Zelenskyy was positive about Ukraine’s chances against Russia, giving daily updates to the public and addresses for foreign leaders. He said the country will fight till the last.
Kurt Volker, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, told CNBC he is optimistic that Russia will be the first to stumble in the war, given the logistical challenges it faces as its invasion drags on — and it has not even begun its assault on the capital Kyiv yet — and the need for more arms and manpower.
Volker stated that he believes the Russians will exhaust themselves at the end of the story to CNBC Friday. “And it doesn’t matter if Putin or people around Putin; they’ll all end up settling.”
“Ukrainian people are very optimistic and they demand that Russia leave Ukraine. I believe that’s what they will do and that Russia won’t be able sustain it.” [the invasion]They are no longer able to provide their forces with supplies. Volker believes that it will continue like this for some time, before it favors a Russian withdrawal.”
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