Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is his biggest mistake and weakens Russia
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Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the concert commemorating the 8th Anniversary of Russia’s Annexation of Crimea. It was held at Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium on March 18, 2022.
Afp | Afp | Getty Images
Vladimir Putin, Russian President, has been in power more than 20 years. He carefully constructed an image of himself being a strong, tough leader fighting for Russia’s interests, and reinstating Russia as a geopolitical, and economic, superpower.
However, Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine is seen as the most costly mistake of his political career. Analysts believe this has led to Russia becoming weaker over time.
“Everything he’s done to get here.” [conferred]It did not only cause Russia bad reputation, it also gave Russia more power. Kurt Volker, a former U.S. Ambassador to NATO told CNBC.
“But now, he has actually drastically weakened Russia,” he stated, noting that Putin could not have done anything comparable in his political career.
On Thursday, global leaders gathered in Europe to discuss Ukraine’s war and to find ways to save the country from Russia’s attack. A NATO Summit is being held in Brussels. It also includes meetings between EU leaders, the Group of Seven (G-7), and other members of NATO.
NATO is expected to commit to “major increases” in troop numbers along its eastern flank as well as more arms and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine, although the military alliance has been reluctant to go further, fearing a direct confrontation with nuclear power Russia.
CNBC’s Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, said Thursday that President Putin made a huge mistake, and it was to start a war against an independent sovereign country.
According to Hadley Gamble, he said Thursday that “he has underestimated Ukraine’s strength and bravery”
NATO’s plan to boost support for Ukraine as well as deployments in Eastern Europe will allow the organization to respond “any threat or challenge to our security.”
War crimes
Russia’s incursion in Ukraine caused over 3.5million civilians to flee Ukraine within a month. Many thousands more lost their homes due to the constant bombardment of Russian forces.
The southern city of Mariupol has been the worst hit so far, with the port — a key export hub for Ukraine — still under siege and heavily destroyed.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, stated that there are approximately 100,000 people still trapped in Kiev, due to the scarcity of water, electricity, and other medical supplies.
Azov Battalion has provided this image. It shows Mariupol’s damaged drama theatre, which was hit by shelling on Thursday, March 17, 2022.
Azov Battalion | AP
Despite deploying near-constant shelling attacks and siege tactics in some areas, Russian forces have only captured one city — Kherson — and a much-feared assault on the capital Kyiv has yet to begin. Russian troops are still resisting Russian aggressions in Kharkiv (the country’s second-largest) and Lviv (the westernmost city) is relatively safe.
Wednesday’s statement by the U.K. defense minister stated that Russian forces have not gained much, despite their attempts to surround Ukrainian troops east of Ukraine.
Blinken said that Mariupol was destroyed and compared it to the Holocaust. similar Russian campaigns against Grozny in the Second Chechen War and Aleppo during the Syrian civil war.
He said that Russia’s military had demolished apartment buildings, schools and hospitals as well critical infrastructure.
Russia, in spite of many contradictory evidence, has stated repeatedly that it doesn’t attack civilian infrastructure. CNBC has reached out to Russia’s Kremlin asking for an explanation on their accusations that Russia committed war crimes. We are still waiting for the response.
Growth is wiped out
Under Putin’s leadership — and until now — Russia’s economy has prospered.
Putin attracted a lot of foreign direct investment and utilized its natural resources, especially its abundant oil and gas. He also tried to diversify his economy.
During his tenure, however, Russia has also been hit by economic misfortunes both of its own making — such as international sanctions after its 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, a nerve agent attack in the U.K. and its meddling in the 2016 U.S. election — and some it had no control over, such as the 2008 financial crash, 2014 oil price crash and most recently, the Covid-19 pandemic.
Russia is now suffering economic hardships that Putin caused with his invasion of Ukraine.
International sanctions are already putting pressure on the US economy.
The town of Armyansk in northern Crimea is surrounded by a column of military trucks. In response to the appeals of leaders from Donetsk People’s Republics and Lugansk People’s Republics, President Putin declared a Russian Armed Forces special military operation. It was to be carried out by them.
TASS | TASS | Getty Images
According to the Institute of International Finance, Russia’s economy will contract 15% by 2022 due to both sanctions (official and self-imposed) on foreign firms that have withdrawn from Russia.
IIF Wednesday predicted a further economic drop of 3% in 2023 and stated that war would “wiped out fifteen years” of economic growth. It also stated that the war would have a severe impact on long-term and medium-term economic prospects. There will be a brain drain and decreased investment.
Putin remains unrepentant
Although he has made very little progress so far in his invasion, Putin appears undeterred.
Russian forces may be in a phase of reorganization, before they resume large-scale offensive activities on or around Kyiv.
Taras Kuzio is a researcher fellow at The Henry Jackson Society. wrote in an article for the Atlantic Council on Tuesday“It is becoming increasingly obvious that Russian President Vladimir Putin miscalculated,”
Kuzio claimed that Putin had drunk Kremlin propaganda about Ukraine’s weakness and prepared ordinary Ukrainians for their invading troops by sending them cakes and flowers.
Kuzio also noted that Putin seemed to be unprepared for either the intensity of international responses or the magnitude of opposition from his invasion. Putin is now left with very few choices to stop a war that threatens to increase Russia’s decline as a major power.
Russia is a country with few allies on the international stage. The invasion was almost universally condemned. China’s allies are worried about Ukraine’s potential conflict and the impact it will have on the world economy.
In March, the UN General Assembly voted to demand that Russia cease its military activities in Ukraine. Only a handful of countries — a rogue’s gallery of Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria, all of which are run by dictators — supporting Russia’s invasion. Russia’s allies Cuban, Nicaragua, and China did not vote.
Russia is over
Putin’s close observers say that Russia is showing increasing signs of despair in its military campaign. They have also questioned Putin’s willingness to go the extra mile to accomplish his goals.
CNBC reported that Dr Ian Lesser (Vice President of the German Marshall Fund) said earlier this month, “There are deep mystery about Russian intentions.” They will go as far as they can. “What would they call a victory?”
You have many choices. There is the possibility of a total occupation of Ukraine. However, you could control only a few of Ukraine’s most important political centers, such as Kyiv, Odesa or they might consider a more territorial strategy.
According to him, Russia is “very exposed” in this scenario. This would lead to an insurgency that could continue for years. It also means ongoing humanitarian cost. Lesser stated, “So there are many dilemmas here.”
Michal Baranowski, senior fellow and director of the German Marshall Fund’s Warsaw office, told CNBC Tuesday, that Putin has “really over-extended himself.”
He said, “We may be looking at Russia’s end as it has been known.” If he is able to survive this, I feel that we could be seeing the foothills a new Cold War.
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