Maria Caspani & James Oliphant

(Reuters] – Utah Governor and Indiana Republican Governors this week rejected legislation prohibiting transgender female athletes from playing in girls’ sport. They were responding to a rise in similar Republican-sponsored legislation.

But the vetoes of those governors appear to be among the solitary voices in a party that has become increasingly fixated on polarizing cultural issues involving race, sex and gender as a cudgel to win over suburban and rural voters and regain power in November’s congressional elections.

According to the Equality Federation which monitors legislation that affects lesbian, gay and bisexual people, eleven states have passed laws prohibiting transgender girls participating in girls’ sport since 2020. Republicans are likely to override the vetoes of Indiana and Utah in state legislatures. This will make the Utah Governor Spencer Cox’s and Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb actions mainly symbolic.

“Saving women’s sports is now a litmus test for Republicans,” said Terry Schilling, president of the American Principles Project, a conservative group that has made state high school transgender bans central to its advocacy. “These governors are just shooting themselves in the foot without any good reason.”

This month, the issue was given new life when Lia Thomas (college swimmer) became the first transgender athlete to win any Division I Championship in swimming. Conservatives are using her win as an opportunity to demand more restrictive legislation.

Republican Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, who is up for re-election and has become perhaps his party’s most high-profile cultural warrior, this week declared the second-place finisher in Thomas’ race the actual winner, saying the NCAA was “perpetuating a fraud” and undermining the integrity of women’s sports.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6803a3.htm in 2019 that just 1.8% of high school students in the country are transgender, and the Human Rights Campaign has said that, according to surveys https://assets2.hrc.org/files/assets/resources/PlayToWin-FINAL.pdf, only about 12% play on girls’ sports teams.

In Utah, Cox called the issue of transgender students participating in sports “one of the most divisive of our time” and said he wanted to approach the issue with compassion. Cox expressed concern about the mental health and well-being of trans teens, saying that they simply desire to belong.

Cox claimed that there was only one case of transgender students playing in a Utah high school girls team.

“Rarely has so much fear and anger been directed at so few,” Cox wrote in a letter explaining his veto. “I don’t understand what they are going through or why they feel the way they do. But I want them to live.”

POLITICAL RISK

Both Cox and Holcomb vetoed the bills and suggested that the restrictions weren’t necessary and could lead to costly lawsuits.

According to the Equality Federation, three additional states had governors that veto similar bans beyond Utah and Indiana. However, South Dakota enacted a new law.

Fran Hutchins (the executive director of this organization) called the legislative efforts a tactic to gain support before the midterm election, in which Republicans might win back a majority of seats in the Senate or the House of Representatives.

“I really hope that the Republican vetoes are the beginning of a sea change in the way that conservatives are thinking about this,” Hutchins said. “But I fear that we’re going to see this rhetoric continue beyond legislative sessions and into the elections.”

Chris Wilson, a Republican pollster who consults on Senate and gubernatorial campaigns, said that Democrats oppose such bans at their peril, saying they are favored by some independents and Democrats who believe it is unfair to allow transgender students to compete in girls’ athletics.

A May 2021 poll by Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/350174/mixed-views-among-americans-transgender-issues.aspx found that 62% of Americans said trans athletes should only be allowed to play on sports teams that correspond with their birth gender, while 34% say they should be able to play on teams that match their gender identity.

Wilson stated that Democrats voting against these bans may face political backlash similar to the debate over progressive calls to cut funding for police departments. This position has been largely rejected by most voters across America.

Republicans may also face political risk

Holcomb might have wanted to prevent the same firestorm in 2015, when Mike Pence signed controversial legislation on religious freedom. Holcomb vetoed the Indiana bill.

And in 2016, North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory, a Republican, lost his re-election bid after the state’s so-called “bathroom bill” requiring transgender people to use the bathroom of their original sex triggered a backlash that damaged the state’s economy.