Every day, it becomes more obvious that China is the President Xi Jinping’s decision to double-down on his “no limits” strategic bromance with Russian President Vladimir PutinJust days before Russian dictator Vladimir Putin launched the war in Ukraine, this was the most risky and shortsighted of his nine-year tenure in office.

If Europe’s most bloody conflict since World War II results in Putin’s withdrawal or failure to military service, this is the perfect recipe to threaten President Xi’s leadership. This was the case as the 20th of his reign.^ThChinese Communist Party Congress November

The geopolitical odds-makers still expect a carefully choreographed outcomeAt the Congress, President Xi would be anointed for a third term. Kevin Rudd, who was the ex-prime minister of Australia, says that any Putin fall from grace could lead to “the chemistry necessary for an internal rethinking of Chinese leadership in the party”. Rudd stated that although Xi’s control is still “comprehensive”, it’s “not complete.”   

It is clear that President Xi needs to begin considering the effects of Putin’s fall. The U.S. President delivered perhaps his most important speech in his political career. Joe BidenPoland’s president departed from the text he had prepared to ask Putin what price he should pay for his illegal, unprovoked, and criminal war against Ukraine’s civilians.

“For God’s sake,” Biden saidIt is impossible for this man to remain in power.

Two days before, NATO Secretary General Jens Sloltenberg referred to Xi in Brussels as Putin’s enabler. He said that Beijing had joined Moscow to question the rights of nations independent from Russia to decide their own paths. China provided Russia with support political, spreading disinformation and blatant lies.

The future of the international order is at stake. World democracies need to move beyond a reactive reaction to Putin’s Ukraine challenge to embrace strategic opportunities. Putin’s failure to win in Ukraine will reverse the authoritarian momentum of the world, undermine the Xi-Putin strategic cause and reveal the hypocrisy that taints Xi’s global ambitions.  

Xi has a problem, especially in the most critical years of his history. His problems are cumulative and self-inflicted. None of these would turn his party comrades against him. This is especially true after the series purges which have eliminated potential enemies. They have made a dramatic difference in the mood when taken together.  

Xi’s inability of anticipating Putin’s military failures or mounting war crimes might increase questions about China’s judgement on a range of other fronts.

They include:

1) Xi’s more assertive and aggressive global approach, casting aside the guiding international philosophyDeng Xiaoping was the leader of the “hide you strength and wait your turn” campaign. Even Communist elites who have been hostile to the United States are beginning to see that quieter Chinese military construction and greater economic and technological power could have yielded better results than diplomacy.

2) Xi’s crackdown on the power and freedoms of the Chinese private sector, and particularly its technological giants,  is also backfiring. It has eroded confidence. reduced foreign investmentsChina’s private sector still accounts for more than 60% of the country’s GDP. slowing Chinese growthIts competitiveness and decreasing it.

3) Many of China’s Communist party elite, particularly those of Xi’s generation or older, worry about their own careers and fates should Xi be reappointed for a record third term this November. There are rumors that Xi will put in a new generation leaders. They’re more likely to follow his orders and push for any consideration of potential successors.

4) The Covid-19 pandemic has been declared extinct. Until recently, it was a source of his leadership credibility. Chinese anxiety is rising around new outbreaksAlready leading to significant lockdowns Shenzhen ChangchunNorthern China. Xi’s zero-Covid strict approach to his country has led him out of the country. low vaccination ratesThis is especially true for booster shots, less ineffective vaccinesPlease see the following: unanticipated economic difficulties.

With all that as context, Xi and Putin on February 4 — with the Beijing Winter Olympics opening and more than 150,000 Russian soldiers massing on Ukraine’s border — signed their 5,300-word statement “that the new inter-State relations between Russia and China are superior to political and military alliances of the Cold War era. Friendship between the two States has no limits, there are no “forbidden” areas of cooperation.

This space will allow you to dissect the pact. I wroteThe following is the conclusion: The two leading authoritarians of our time have declared unprecedented common cause – perhaps even a de facto security alliance – with aspirations of shaping a new world order to replace the one fashioned by the United States and its partners after World War II.”

You can’t believe that Putin didn’t share his plans to invade China with Xi before this move or that Xi did not understand that Putin’s joint declaration was a signal for the war in Ukraine. The West’s leaders mistakenly believe that the moment is right to seperate Xi and Putin. They argue that Xi will be affected by domestic, political, and economic factors. Chinese officials watched in horror as the UN General Assembly voted to ask Russia to “immediately and completely withdraw its military forces from Ukraine’s territory within its internationally recognised borders.”

Xi needs to balance that with larger strategic imperatives such as his determination and desire to defend his northern frontier, and his desire to continue accessing Russian energy. China also gains from Russia’s attempts to disorient and disrupt America around the globe.

Xi believes that even a weaker Putin is still better than none at all, considering how much the Chinese leader has put into the relationship, through over three dozen meetings, since 2014. The consequences of Putin’s demise for Xi are so dire that he will be less likely to back a deal that leaves Putin behind.

Putin’s failure to support Chinese global interests won’t be changed. Biden said in Warsaw that the democracies around the globe are being reenergized by purpose and unity in months, something it used to take years for.

—Frederick Kempe is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Atlantic Council.