Here’s what you need to know
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A woman passes large posters with pictures of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The placards read: “Russia does NOT start wars. It ends them.” In the center of Simferopol in Crimea on March 4, 20,22, a sign reading “We will target the demilitarization, denazification and disarmament of Ukraine.”
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Russia’s military strategy towards Ukraine has been in the limelight after it stated it would alter its approach. But, after numerous false promises by Russia and multiple fake flags, it is difficult to believe that Russia really intends what it says.
Some quarters were surprised and suspicious when Russia declared that it had completed the first stage of its “specially military operation”, which is what it called its invasion of Ukraine. Russia said that it will now focus on Ukraine’s eastern Donbas, which is home to two pro-Russian republics.
Sergei Rudskoi (head of Russia’s Main Operational Directorate) stated that “the main objectives of this operation have generally been achieved.” said in a speech Friday. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine’s combat potential has been significantly decreased, which… makes a focus on our main goal of liberating Donbas.
Analysts were surprised by the apparent shift in strategy. It was seen as a sign that Russia wants to reduce its invasion of Ukraine.
Russia has been unable to achieve its goals of a rapid occupation, due to the resistance of both the armed forces and volunteers. “grinding war” of attritionRussian forces were involved in heavy fighting against the Ukrainians in eastern, northern and southern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces have defended their own cities and towns first, but now they are launching counterattacks against Russian soldiers, with an emphasis on Kyiv as the main target. Russian forces have only captured Kherson so far. This is despite the fact that Ukrainian forces are launching an offensive to seize the southern port.
Russian military vehicles can be seen in Volnovakha City, where they patrol. Volnovakha is one of many cities that were most directly affected by the war in Ukraine and Russia, which began February 24, 2022, and ended in Donetsk on March 27, 2022.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Against this backdrop, Russia’s announcement that it would concentrate on the Donbas region appeared to be a tacit acknowledgement of the reality on the ground in Ukraine — that is, that Russia has failed to make the progress it expected and was pulling back to save face, amid high numbers of casualties which could turn Russian public opinion against the war.
Rudskoi of Russia claims that 1351 Russian soldiers died and 3 825 were injured in this conflict. The Ukrainian army claims more than 15,000 Russian troops have died in conflict.
Timothy Ash, senior sovereign strategist for emerging markets at BlueBay Asset Management responded in Saturday’s note to the announcement.
It is only a way to save face. Russia still has a massive military failure even though it manages to capture the entirety of Donbas.
Evidence of any changes is not available
It has been several days since Russia announced its intention to withdraw. However, there are not many signs of significant changes.
Russia continues its bombing of Ukraine, and explosions were heard in Lviv (in the west) over the weekend. Maksym Kolytskyy, Lviv’s Governor, said that two missiles were fired on Saturday afternoon. One attack hit an oil depot, and three additional explosions followed later in day.
Lviv, at the opposite extreme of Ukraine’s Donbas region is where Russia asserts its military campaign.
According to the U.K. Defence Ministry, Monday’s intelligence assessment showed that “no major changes” have occurred in Russian Forces arrangements in Ukraine.
Experts agree. Michael McFaul a former U.S. ambassador in Russia stated Monday on Twitter that there is “little evidence on battlefield to suggest Putin is only focused on Donbass now,” reinforcing earlier doubts over Russia’s apparent shift of direction.
A Pentagon senior official claimed at Friday’s briefing that it was difficult to ascertain whether Russia’s self-styled change of focus in Ukraine was genuine.
CNBC reached out to Russia’s Ministry of Defense to get more information on how and when they plan to concentrate their forces in the Donbas. However, CNBC is still waiting to hear back.
The Institute for the Study of War analysts stated that Russia’s claim that the invasion was always focused on Luhansk and Donetsk, in the Donbas area is false.
However, they were likely intended primarily at Russian audiences and don’t accurately capture or fully describe current Russian war plans and aims,” Mason Clark and Fredrick W. Kagan wrote on Friday.
“According to the Kremlin, its initial campaign was to launch airborne, mechanized and joint operations in order to seize Kyiv. Kharkiv. Odesa and other key cities of Ukraine, to force an election in Ukraine.” They added that it would be “inaccurate to assume Russia has rescinded these aims.”
Russian forces have continued to fight in Ukraine and continue their attempts to seize additional territory and advance. “They are also attacking and devastating Ukrainian cities,” they added.
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