Treasury yields invert flashing recessionary warning sign
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On Monday, the yields of U.S. Treasury 5 and 30 year Treasury bonds inverted for first time since 2006, raising concerns about possible recession.
The yield is based on 5-year Treasury noteThe rate rose 6.1% to 2.6361% by 5:30 a.m. ET 30-year yieldThe decrease was not more than one basis point, to 2.6004%. The 2-year yieldThe benchmark was up nearly 8 basis points, at 2.3805%. 10-yearThe increase was 1 basis point, to 2.5066%.
This is the first time the shorter-dated Treasury yield has risen above that of the longer-dated U.S. government bond since 2006 — just a couple of years before the Global Financial Crisis.
In the past, yield curve has inverted prior to recessionsInvestors are buying longer-dated bonds instead of selling short-dated government debt, signaling their concern over the economy’s health.
Inflation is on the rise, and this has been exacerbated by Russia-Ukraine’s war. Market anxiety about the prospect of an economic slowdown has increased.
Sunaina Sinha Haldea, global head of private capital advisory at Raymond James, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box EuropeInvestors are advised to be concerned about the yield curve inversion on Monday and pay attention to their portfolio’s positioning.
She said that despite the strength of the equity market momentum, it was impossible to avoid the fact the soft landing looked less likely than it did one month ago. This refers to the central bank’s efforts to increase monetary policy to reduce inflation.
After Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the U.S. central banking could increase rates more aggressively to control inflation, the 10-year yield rose from 2.155% to 2.25%.
The Fed uses labor market data to guide its monetary policy direction. Investors will therefore be paying attention this week to the reports on employment.
The February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is scheduled for Tuesday release. The March ADP Employment Change Report will be released on Wednesday. This report includes a weekly update of jobless claim filings, and March’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
The February personal consumption expense index is another measure of inflation and is expected to be out Thursday.
At 8:30 am on Monday, the wholesale and retail inventory data for February will be released. ET.
On Monday, auctions will be held for $57billion of 13-week bill, $48billion of 26-week bill, $50billion of 2-year notes, $51 billion 5-year notes, and $48billion of 6-week bills.
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