To soften the blow, Western leaders might look at sub-Saharan Africa’s liquified gas projects as a way to ease the transition.

Russia and West continue to be at odds regarding payment for natural-gas exports. Europe in particular is dependent upon this resource. Moscow demanded “unfriendly countries” pay in Russian rubles for the gas delivery, which G-7 nations rejected.

This divergence follows an unprecedented, coordinated international barrage against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

While the U.S. declared an absolute ban on Russian oil, coal, and gas imports, the U.K. plans to eliminate Russian oil completely by the end the year. The EU also intends to reduce its dependence on Russian imports by at least two-thirds.

Russia exports around 40% of EU natural gas, and Italy is particularly at risk. Germany issued an “early warning”On Wednesday, natural gas rationing was discussed as a possible option in the event of a complete supply shortfall.

The EU has struck a deal with the U.S.Although an additional 15 billion cubic metres of LNG is required, the former U.S. Energy secretary Dan Brouillette claimed Monday that this will not be sufficient to cover Russia’s shortfall.

CNBC’s Luigi di Maio, Italian Foreign Minister, said Tuesday that he has been to Mozambique and Angola over the last month in an effort to establish new LNG supply partnership.

Di Maio declared, “Energy Security is essential for countries like Italy or other global manufacturing giants. We must be able diversify our energy source.”

To avoid Russia’s possible threats on our gas supply, we are diversifying and will continue to make green energy transitions with other sources.

Verisk Maplecroft Africa’s analysts stated that, while Africa cannot replace Russian natural gas imports as a whole, but it can help shore up the supply.

Oil majors BP, TotalEnergiesAnd EniAll three have established presences on the African continent to help build with U.S. oil companies such as Exxon Mobil.

Verisk Maplecroft stated that BP was the furthest along with efforts to put online a major LNG plant in sub-Saharan Africa. He could even double these efforts at the Tortue natural gas fields, which lie between Senegal’s border and Mauritania.

EniClaudio Descalzi, CEO, announced this month that the Italian gas giant can supply Europe with 14 trillion cubic feet more of natural gas from its assets located around the globe, which include Angola and Congo as well as Nigeria, Nigeria, and Mozambique. Eni serves as an intermediary. Angola has already committed to boosting gas exports to Italy from Congo and Angola.

Huge potential, significant obstacles

Maja Bovcon (analyst), Eric Humphery Smith (an analyst) and Alexandre Raymakers (analyst) highlighted that Senegal is the most well-positioned to boost production. But, the bulk of the new supply will arrive in the second half the decade.

Verisk Maplecroft stated that “the political stability and fiscal stability of Senegal, Mauritania means projects are well-placed for LNG development. Furthermore, the possible re-election in Angola of the MPLA on August 20, 2022 will allow an increase in investment.”

Mozambique has colossal natural resources. Many European energy corporations have set up facilities here. beset by a violent Islamist insurgencyIn recent years, some of these facilities were forced to close.

Verisk Maplecroft said that other LNG companies in the Gulf of Guinea could also expand, like Nigeria, Cameroon or Equatorial Guinea.

The report stated that an improved gas price environment could help swing profitability for many projects in Nigeria. This would allow for more supply to existing and planned LNG projects.

“For example the Ukraine crisis will increase the appeal of the long-planned Nigeria LNG Train 7 which will be available in 2026. This train will need an additional 1,200mmcfd gas supply from Nigerian gaz projects.

Analysts also noticed a renewed interest in Fortuna FLNG in Equatorial Guinea.

However, the rise of piratery within the region and opportunistic attacks upon LNG tankers in recent decades may serve as a deterrent.

Verisk Maplecroft concluded that even if every greenfield LNG project in sub-Saharan Africa was operational at full capacity, this would only make up about half of Russia’s total gas supply to Europe.

The report stated that “the improved gas demand, price environment and gas supply means sub-Saharan Africa can fill some of what was left by the embargo on Russian gas supplies,” but this won’t be enough to solve the problem.