Goldman Sachs (NYSE) analyst Mark Delaney reflects on Tesla (NASDAQ;) in advance of this weekend’s report about Q1 deliveries.

An analyst at Tesla believes there is a lot of demand. He pointed out indicators that show that Tesla’s shipments are up slightly qoq, but ahead of the Street.

Delaney’s delivery estimate of 315k is at risk due to the Shanghai plant being shut down for several more days. The Street consensus for Tesla is 309k. However, Delaney suggests that Tesla might report numbers slightly above this Street figure.

Based on CPCA data, we estimate that the Shanghai Gigafactory produces approximately 2K cars per day. However, some of this production would be used for delivery in the second quarter. Production could be affected by lockdowns in China and disruptions to Tesla’s supply chain. Delaney reported that Aptiv (NYSE 🙂 also stopped production in Shanghai.

Delaney led a team of Goldman Sachs analysts that looked at Tesla app downloads. They showed a rise in single-digit qoq, and significantly up yoy, although with some geographical dispersion.

Delaney showed Tesla’s Q1 earnings and projected his full year projection for 2022 at 1.51,000,000 deliveries – which is higher than Street estimates at 1.455m – as well as the full-year EPS estimate at $11.20. Again, this figure was higher than FactSet’s consensus of $10.86.

Given rising input prices, and the cost of starting factories, Delaney expects EPS to be less strong in Q1. Delaney predicts higher margins due to increased prices and opening new factories.

The analyst stated that Tesla’s ability, to both pass on higher prices and manage the supply chain will be a strength this year.

By Senad Karaahmetovic