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Sergei Lavrov’s visit puts India under pressure

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On April 1, 2022, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s minister of external affairs met Sergei Lavrov from Russia. As shown in this file photo, the two men met in Moscow on July 20, 2021.

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India’s diplomat in Moscow is visiting India as tension mounts over the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Sergei Lavrov (Russian Foreign Minister) is currently in New Delhi, trying to persuade India not to support the Ukraine war or to violate international sanctions by buying more Russian crude oil. a rupee-ruble payment mechanism.

Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, his counterpart on Friday, expressed appreciation for India’s neutrality regarding Ukraine. Lavrov stated that India is applying all facts to the situation and not only in one way. He could also meet the Prime Minister Narendra ModiDuring his visit.

However, in diplomatic drama and high-stakes, the Russian visit occurred just after Liz Truss, British Foreign Secretary, had been. billed by the British press as a push against Russia. U.S. deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh — one of the chief architects of sanctions against Russia, was also in town on a similar mission.

Modi is the only foreign leader to be able to communicate well with Russian President Vladimir Putin. awarded Russia’s top decoration, the Order of St. Andrew.

Its 2021 National Security Strategy,Russia described New Delhi relations as a special and privileged strategic partner, and the two were mentioned in the same paragraph that Russo-Chinese relations.

The day before, Lavrov was in China to met China’s Foreign Minister Wang YiStrengthen ties.

After their meeting, Wang stated that China-Russia relations had withstood the test of changing international circumstances, maintained progress in the right direction, and displayed tenacious development momentum. This is a clear sign of China’s determination to continue its support for the country. “no limits” partnership with Russia.

New Delhi, like Beijing, has not voted in UN resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion. However it is being pressured by the West to change its position.

India buys Russian oil

Some have raised concerns. India ramping up its oil purchases from Russia at deep discounts.

During a visit to India this week, U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economics said the Biden administration did not want to see India crank up its crude oil purchases from Russia. 

On Wednesday, Gina Raimondo (U.S. Commerce Secretary) spoke from Washing and said that India’s purchase of Russian crude oil was “deeply disappointing”. She urged New Delhi again to “stand on the right side” of history.

Even with discounts, Russian oil is still expensive because of higher insurance rates due to the war in Ukraine.

Sunjoy Joshi

Chairman, Observer Research Foundation

Truss also stated that Britain respected India’s decision not to purchase Russian goods, but she also discussed ways to cut India’s strategic dependence on Russia.

CNBC India was told by an analyst that India’s oil imports will likely not rise significantly from Russia.

Sunjoy Joshi (chairman of the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi) stated that Russian oil, even with a discount is still expensive due to increased insurance rates resulting from the conflict in Ukraine.

After China and the United States, India is third in the world to consume oil. imports about 80% of its energy requirements.

India imported 12 million barrels worth of crude oil from Russia between 2021 and 2023. That’s between 2% to 5% of its crude imports, Samir N. Kapadia, head of trade at government relations consulting firm Vogel Group, previously told CNBC.

Hardeep Singh Puri (India’s Petroleum Minister) stated however that India had purchased 41.9 million tonnes of crude oil, from Russia, in the first ten months of this fiscal year, which started in April 2020. according to local reports. According to him, this represented just 0.2% of total 175.9million tonnes imported.

Indian media claimed this week that the state-owned Indian Oil Corporation bought two shiploads of distressed Russian oil — 3 million barrels in each trade — through traders at deep discounts. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation is another firm. Two million barrels Russian crude Urals were purchased. 

“There are also not many refineries with the capacity to process Russian crude,” Joshi told CNBC, pointing out that the oil purchase would serve to send the signal to Moscow that India had not sanctioned Russia. 

Security concerns

India’s dependence on Russian military hardware is high as it stands at loggerheads with China. Lavrov should also provide an update on when deliveries of arms are expected to occur, including for the S-400 anti-aircraft defense system.

India, which has been heavily dependent on Russian weapons since 1962’s purchase of Mig-21 fighters from Moscow, has slowly moved towards the West over the last ten years.

This is the core of U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy that aims to stop Chinese military and diplomatic aggressions in the region. Although its trade volume with the U.S. exceeds $100 billion, Russia has a comparable figure of only $8 billion.

Joshi stated that India’s security requirements cannot be changed overnight.

The greater security concern is paramount. Russia supplies India with its legacy defense equipment. Russia supplies all the spares. “Who will replace it?” He added that oil was still secondary in bilateral ties.

The U.S. deputy National security advisor implied that Russia wasn’t dependable when addressing India’s defense concerns.

Singh stated that “the more Russia is China’s junior partner and the more China gains over Russia the less favorable it is for India’s strategic position,” to a television channel in India on Thursday.

Do you think anyone believes that Russia will now defend India if China violates the Line of Actual Control? He said, “I don’t.” The Line of Actual Control, which is 2,100 miles long and unmarked at the border that divides Indian-controlled territory from Chinese territory.

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