MANILA (Reuters), – The Asian Development Bank has revealed that growth in Asia’s developing countries will be slower than expected this year, as the conflict in Ukraine could impede economic recovery in the region still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to the ADB, China and India’s combined economies are expected to grow 5.2% in this year. This is slightly lower than 5.3% in December’s forecast and much less than 6.9% in the prior year.

The region will grow by 5.3% in 2023.

In its Asian Development Outlook Report, the ADB stated: “The Russian invasion in Ukraine has severe disrupted development Asia’s outlook which is still struggling with COVID-19.”

According to the multilateral lender, Manila, there are other potential factors that could cloud the region’s growth outlook. These include ongoing price increases for commodities, increased financial stability risk due to US rate hikes, and the rise of more dangerous COVID-19 variants.

According to the agency, China’s economy is likely to grow at 5.0% this year. That was slower than its December projections and far less than its 8.1% growth in 2021. The reason for that decline could be COVID-19-related disruptions of economic activities, chilling consumer spending, and a slowdown in China’s overall economic expansion.

With the exception of South Asia, growth was expected to be slower than anticipated for all subregions. ADB has now seen East Asia and Southeast Asia grow 4.7% and 4.9% instead of 5.0%, 5.1%.

With the sharper-than-expected increases in commodity prices, the ADB raised its inflation forecast for the region to 3.7% in 2022 from its earlier forecast of 2.7%, before easing to 3.1% in 2023.

GDP GROWTH

2020 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023

JULY SEPT DEC APRA APR

Central Asia -2.0.5.6.4.2.4.4.3.6.

East Asia 1.8 7.6.5.1.5.0.4.7.

China: 2.2.8.1 China 5.5.5.5 5.3.5.0

South Asia -5.2 8.3 7.7 7.0.7.0.7.0.7.0 7.4

India: 6.6 8.9 7.5.7.5.7.5.7.5.7.5.7.5.

Seast Asia -3.2.2.9 5.2.5.0 5.1.4.9.5.2

Indonesia -2.1 3.7 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.2

Malaysia: 5.6 3.1 5.6.1 5.9 6.6.0

Myanmar 3.2 -18.4 n/a n/a n/a -0.3 2.6

Philippines -9.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.3

Singapore -4.1 7.6 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.2

Thailand: 6.2 1.6, 4.9, 4.0, 3.0

Vietnam: 2.9-2.6 7.0, 6.5, 6.5, 6.5 6.5, 6.5

Pacific -6.0 Pacific -0.6 4.0.4.8.4.7.3.9.

Developing: -0.8 6.9 5.5.4 5.3.5.2 5.3.5.3

Asia

INFLATION

2020 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023

JULY SEPT DEC APRA APR

Central Asia 7.7 8.9 6.3.3 6.7 7.3 8.8

East Asia 2.2.1.1 2.2.2.2 2.0 2.4.2.0

China 2.5 0.9 China 2.3.2.3.2.1.2.3.2.3.2.2.

South Asia: 6.5.5.7.5.1.5.3.6.5

India: 6.2 5.4.4.8.4.8.4.8.4.8.4.8.5.8

SEast Asia 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.1

Indonesia 2.0 1.6 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.6 3.0

Malaysia: 1.12.5 2.0 2.3.2.3 3.0 2.5

Myanmar 5.7 3.6 n/a n/a n/a 8.0 8.5

Philippines 2.4 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.2 3.5

Singapore -0.2 2.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 3.0 2.3

Thailand: 0.8 1.2.1.0 1.0.1.4 3.3.2.2

Vietnam: 3.2 1.8.4.0.3.5.3.8.4.0.

The Pacific: 2.9.3.1.3.9.4.1.4.1.5.9 4.7

Development 3.2 2.5 2.2.7.2.7.2.7.3.7

Asia

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