Why Putin is refocusing troops in the east of Ukraine
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Putin described Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine as a special military operation.
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Russian President Vladimir PutinHe is responsible for directing a shift in military strategy in response to the Kremlin’s unprovoked attack in Ukraine.
Analysts view the change in Russia’s approach as an implicit acknowledgment of its failure. They say that the fierce resistance by Ukrainian forces has stopped Putin from quickly capturing major cities and overthrowing the government.
According to analysts, the next phase of war will likely result in an uneasy truce. This would worsen an already catastrophic humanitarian crisis, because Russia’s highest-ranking army commanders are trying to take control over the separatist republics Donetsk/Luhansk.
The deputy prime minister of Ukraine on Wednesday called for people living in eastern Ukraine to leave amid increasing fears of an attack. Iryna Vereshchuk stated that evacuation is urgent because people could be threatened with their lives and put under fire.
This is less than two months after Sergei Rudskoy (deputy chief of staff, Russia’s Armed Forces), had it. announced The forces are moving away form a nation-wide offensive. Rudskoy claimed that instead, the Kremlin wanted to focus its efforts on the “complete freedom” of Donbas.
Christopher Granville of TS Lombard’s Global Political Research and managing director EMEA, stated via telephone to CNBC that it seemed like “this is the most significant single piece news story since the war began.” “I believed it then, and haven’t changed my mind since.”
Granville claimed that Russia’s recent reconcentration in Ukraine of its troops foreshadows some “all too possible horrors.” Slovyansk (and Kramatorsk), two large cities located in the Donetsk Oblast’s north, were particularly of concern to Granville.
There have been many families queuing up for hours outside Kramatorsk’s train station.
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Numerous people fled the Donbas region in their thousands, and hundreds of families waited for safety at Kramatorsk Central Station.
Some people find the situation all too familiar.
Ukrainian troops fought Russian-backed separatists from Kramatorsk, 2014; Granville claimed that Slovyansk, a nearby city was of “totemic import” to the Donbas separatists.
According to analysts at The Analysts, Russia has yet to commit forces from its so-called Battle of Kyiv to an Eastern offensive. Institute for the Study of WarHowever, it is believed that troops were preparing to attack Slovyansk.
I think that success is dependent on morale and military perspective. Russia is a country that has troops defending Kyiv from being attacked. They are trying to accomplish what? Granville said.
“It is common for soldiers to have goals. For example, the goal of sellingering to obtain territory is a natural one. This campaign is in the Donbas,” said he. They can see the cause they are fighting, and they can make progress. This applies to all levels, from senior Russian general staff officers to commanders on the ground.
An unexpected fork in the road
Jonathan Flint, an adjunct professor and military strategist at Case Western Reserve University Cleveland (Ohio), believes Russia can take two paths to achieve its military goals.
Flint said that Russia would prefer to retreat to relative safety in order to use this chance to rearm, organize, and strengthen their forces for an organized, more efficient advance into Ukrainian-held territories. Flint also spoke for CNBC.
However, this approach has its risks. Ukrainian troops could be sent across borders to Russia to fight, and another attempt at invasion may not succeed as the first.
Flint stated that the other alternative was to “encroach in these areas,” making it almost impossible for Ukrainian forces to retake them and return them under Ukrainian control. Russia may choose this route because it could freeze the conflict and prevent Ukraine joining NATO or EU. This would be despite the promises that were made in peace talks.
Bruno Lete (Senior Fellow of Security and Defense at The German Marshall Fund) stated that although Russian forces have lost the Battle for Kyiv but the Kremlin is still fighting a nearly six-week-old conflict.
“We must look beyond the east to the south of Ukraine,” Lete said. Lete stated that large areas of Ukraine’s coasts east of Crimea have been occupied. Russia clearly wants to build a land bridge from Crimea to Russia. Russia can succeed if Mariupol is destroyed.
British military intelligence said Wednesday that fighting is continuing in Mariupol with Russian airstrikes. The move was likely meant to force the Ukrainian forces in the encircled city in its southeast to surrender.
The U.K. Defense Ministry estimated that most of the remaining 160,000 residents of Mariupol have no access to light, communication, medicine, heat or water — underscoring the worsening humanitarian crisis there.
It is only when the other side finds it unbearable that I will expect to move towards peace.
Jonathan Flint
Professor at Case Western Reserve University
Lete said Russia may also consider intensifying attacks on the strategically important port hub of Odesa on the Black Sea coast to establish a coastline bridge from Crimea to Transnistria — a Moldovan breakaway region occupied by Russian forces.
“Ukrainians have the ability to defend themselves on land, but far less so in the air … Therefore the first stage of these next battles will be characterized by Russia conducting missile attacks and airstrikes on critical and civilian infrastructure,” he added.
Putin is ready to confront ‘a moment in truth’
Russia’s withdrawal from Kyiv’s suburbs coincided with international condemnation. World leaders were horrified at mounting evidence of war crimes.
While the Kremlin denies any claims of execution of civilians, they accuse Ukraine without providing evidence of an alleged plot to undermine Russia’s military.
Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s President, has accused Russia for genocide in Ukraine. Joe Biden however has called on Putin to face trial for war crimes.
Russia announced that it will concentrate its efforts now on the “complete Liberation” of Ukraine’s Donbas Region.
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Fabrice Pothier (CEO of Rasmussen Global), a political consultant, stated that Russia’s goal seemed to be consolidating the territory hold the Kremlin has in eastern Donbassin since 2014.
Pothier stated that “I believe this is a game about who can hold on longer and who can convince the civilian population that fighting is worth it.” He spoke to CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Tuesday. As long as the West supports Zelenskyy, I think he’s on solid ground at the moment.
Pothier stated that Putin is supported by Russia’s internal forces, however, it is not clear how long. I believe that there will come a time of truth. [a moment] of reckoning for the Russian leader vis-à-vis his population.”
Granville of TS Lombard stated that Russia was most likely to enter a war by attrition. “It seems to me that the Russian stance will become more defensive … and this is a formula for a very protracted conflict.”
Flint too was skeptical that peace talks would soon reach a breakthrough. He stated that only when the other side is experiencing unbearable pain can he expect to see progress towards peace.
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