Consumer fears over inflation hit a record high in March, New York Fed survey shows
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One motorist stops at Encinitas Blvd, Encinitas CA, to fill up his tank. This was Tuesday, April 5, 20,22.
The Washington Post – Getty Images| The Washington Post | Getty Images
Inflation worries are rising, according to new Federal Reserve data.
The New York Fed released Monday’s March survey that showed consumers expect inflation to rise 6.6% in the coming year. It’s an increase of 10% in median inflation expectations over the month just before, the highest point in any series since 2013.
According to the survey, median expectations for a 3-year period actually declined by 0.1 percent to 3.7%. This is largely due in part to lower household incomes of below $50,000.
However, the uncertainty regarding inflation during both the 1- and 3-year periods reached new records.
Expectations for household spending rose strongly, rising 1.3 percent to 7.7%. This is also an all-time high.
These data are released one day ahead of Dow Jones’ March consumer price index, which should show prices increasing at 8.4% per year over the previous 12 months. Dow Jones estimations say that this is the most recent release. This would represent the largest increase in prices since December 1981, according to Dow Jones estimates.
In an effort to fight inflation, last month’s Fed interest rate rise was approved. The Fed is expecting to keep increasing its rates through the year, as the price increase exceeds the Fed’s longstanding target of 2%.
Rent (10.2%), which is about one-third the CPI, sees the most rapid increases for consumers. All three categories of medical care will see an increase in 9.6%. In comparison to the 8.5% forecast, college costs have declined by 0.5 percent.
While wage growth expectations remained stable at 3% and 36.2% predicted that the unemployment rate would increase in the coming year, this is the highest number since February 2021. While unemployment stands at 3.6% right now, it is still higher than before the Covid pandemic, though participation in labor forces remains one percentage point lower.
Anxiety about job stability increased slightly, but the likelihood of losing your job within the next year rose to 11.1%. That’s a gain of 0.3 percentage points that still falls well below the 13.8% level pre-pandemic.
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