Macron and Le Pen to battle over younger voters
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One woman passes damaged posters from the French presidential election of En Marche! (Onwards !) movement Emmanuel Macron and President, National Front (FN), Marine Le Pen. They are both candidates for French presidential elections on May 4, 2017, in Paris, France.
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Emmanuel Macron may have breathed a sigh relief at not being closer to voting on Sunday night. However, deeper analysis of the election data revealed a troubling trend for France’s president.
France’s president-elect was shocked by Sunday’s results. After coming up five points ahead of Marine Le Pen, the former investment banker from the center was visibly distraught.
Macron said to the crowd Sunday night, “Make no mistake. Nothing is resolved.” “Let’s be humble, determined … I want to extend my hand to all those who want to work for France.”
This result saw Macron win 28.3% while Le Pen took 23.3%. It set up a runoff election on April 24 between both candidates. The outcome means that much is at stake for France and Europe, and the candidates offer vastly different perspectives.
The following photograph was taken in Toulouse in southwestern France, April 10, 2022. It shows TV screens showing projected results of the French presidential election.
Lionel Bonaventure | Afp | Getty Images
Jean-Luc Melenchon (far-left socialist candidate) came in third with 21%. Eric Zemmour (7.2%), whose antiimmigrant comments made Le Pen seem moderate, was next with 21%. Le Pen and Macron now have to try to win as many voters as possible before the final vote, which will be held in just two weeks.
France faces a battle on Europe’s eastern flank with a scale that is unprecedented since World War II and high inflation.
In stark contrast to other countries, the older French voter, especially those over 70 years old, is more liberal than younger ones.
Anger, disillusionment among young voters
Ipsos’ polling data indicates that Macron only came out on top among voters over the age of 60The 18-24-year-olds voted more heavily for Melenchon, Le Pen and Melenchon. Macron’s younger supporters tend to vote less in France. However, Macron must appeal to more left-leaning people to get many of the votes for the runoff.
Data from polling group Harris InteractiveThe results showed that the hard-left Melenchon, who won 34.8%, was the most popular vote among voters 18-24, followed by Macron and Le Pen, which received 24.3%, 18%, and respectively. At 30%, Le Pen accounted for the highest percentage of votes from 25 to 49-year-olds.
Her vote was also 28.8% higher among the 35-49 age group. Macron won 37.5% among 65-year-old voters, and 28% of those aged 50-64 years.
Some analysts believe the trend to the extreme right and left is not just a sign of a change in values but also shows the appeal and rejection of globalism as a concept.
Macron is facing an unprecedented cost-of-living crisis across the nation and widespread faith in his country. he’s a “president of the rich,”His pitch to young voters and others further up the political spectrum looks far more difficult than he might have anticipated.
Julien Hoez, a Brussels-based expert in international politics and communications explained to CNBC that the rise of popularity for candidates on the extreme end of the spectrum is a result of “anger towards their lost years due to the Covid Pandemic or government lockdowns; part it is an anti–establishment positioning toward the French government.”
Hoez explained that “on top of all this, there’s also the generational and economic stressors across French society who have been picked up by parties such as RN and LFI,” referring to Le Pen’s National Rally or Melenchon’s La France Insoumise.
Problems with bread-and butter
Le Pen has softened her image as well as that of National Rally in recent years. She has moved from being concerned about immigration and national identity, to focusing on bread-and-butter matters like the cost living. Her message resonates, especially with the highest inflation rate in Europe.
A poll conducted by Ipsos on April 10 revealed that purchasing power and cost of living are the most pressing issues for 58% and clear majority of all age groups, except those aged 18-24.
Le Pen has made appeals to voters to propose tax cuts to energy. Prices of this commodity are now at historical highs due to inflation and Russia’s invasion. Macron meanwhile has pledged some tax cuts but is also pushing for an increase in the retirement age and cut to public sector employment – something that won’t find much support among the left-wing voters whose support he now needs.
Macron would like to increase the retirement age to 65 from 62. He is also the only candidate who wants to eliminate the state-employed special pension system. This includes significant benefits as well as a younger retirement age. Zemmour would like to increase the retirement age from 62 to 64. Le Pen wants it to remain the same, with 60 being the minimum for people who began working in the 20th century. Melenchon wanted it to be lower at 60.
Zemmour made a speech after Sunday’s elections in which he urged his followers to vote for Le Pen. Melenchon, on the other hand, asked his supporters not to vote. Zemmour did not endorse Macron as the incumbent president would appreciate it.
Ukraine Effect
Macron has been advocating for European unity during a time of crisis when Russia is aggressively threatening the EU. At first, his focus on Ukraine gave him an advantage in polls. But, in the last fortnight of the first vote, Macron’s focus has moved to domestic issues like the cost-of-living crisis.
Le Pen is able take advantage of this by pushing her economic promises forward as anti-NATO, anti-EU stances. Russian President Vladimir PutinThese were brought under close scrutiny.
It is not a departure from controversial issues, however, that’s the point of a shifting topic focus, according to Mujtaba Raman, the head for the Europe desk at Eurasia Group.
In a note before the election, Le Pen stated that Le Pen was “no more reasonable or moderate today than she’s been historically.” Her extremist right-wing views remain a major force in French politics.
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