By Marcela Ayres

BRASILIA, Reuters – On Thursday the Brazilian government predicted that Brazil’s national debt would reach 79.6% in 2023. It will rise to 80.3% by 2024, and remain at this level through 2025.

This compares to a current level of 79.6%, as indicated by the central bank. It indicates that the government anticipates mild growth in its primary indicator of fiscal sustainability.

According to Reuters, the figures can be found in Congress’ 2023 budget bill. This sends a fiscal primary deficit target for next year of 65.9 trillion reais ($14.02billion).

These accounts include the Treasury’s, Social Security and Central Bank’s results. Brazil’s Economy Ministry has recently forecasted a primary deficit of 66.9 trillion reais for the year.

Since 2014, figures have declined, and fiscal deterioration has taken gross debt well beyond the 50% average for emerging economies.

In the budget bill, the government predicts that it will have a deficit in 2024 of 27.9 million reais. After 11 consecutive years of deficits, 2025 will see the balance move to the positive side at 33.7 billion Riais.

Paulo Guedes, Economy Minister, stated that the better fiscal results after 2020’s record deficit due to COVID-19 has demonstrated the country’s commitment towards fiscal responsibility.

However, many analysts believe that this year’s presidential election will see candidates including President Jair Bolsonaro who seeks a second term to put their money on populist rhetoric and leave fiscal discipline aside.

($1 = 4.7013 reais)