Japan consumer inflation seen picking up, still distant from BOJ target: Reuters poll -Breaking
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© Reuters. FILEPHOTO: A few days after the outbreak of coronavirus diseases (COVID-19), shoppers are wearing face masks at Tokyo’s supermarkets on March 27, 2020. REUTERS/Issei KatoTOKYO (Reuters). Japan’s core consumer inflation likely accelerated from a previous year, however, it still fell short of the Bank of Japan’s price target, according to a Reuters poll. The result reinforces the opinion that the BOJ is going to be far behind other central bank in normalising its policy.
Separate data are expected to reveal that Japan’s balance of trade remained in deep red. It is fueling worries about rising import costs for fuel and other commodities. Meanwhile, the yen has weakened to a 20 year low at 126 against the US dollar.
Japan’s central banks will be faced with a difficult task next week because of the data. Legislators are demanding measures to reduce rising inflation from the weakening yen, making it a politically hot button issue.
According to a poll by 18 economists, March core consumer price index data (CPI), which will be published at 2330 GMT, April 21st, likely rose 0.8% from last year and was faster than the 0.6% increase in February.
Takeshi Minami (chief economist, Norinchukin Research Institute) stated that “the pace of increases in the core CPI probably returned to pre-pandemic level.”
The natiowide Core Index likely grew in March, as the strong yen and rising commodity prices have led to an increase in import inflation.
The BOJ will not be rushing to end its monetary stimulus if there is a rise in headline inflation. Analysts say that, despite rising headline inflation, the BOJ is likely to keep its strong stimulus in place for some time, given the fact that current cost-push inflation may not be sustainable.
The long-elusive inflation target of 2% is it.
Trade data to be published by the Ministry of Finance on April 19 at 2350 GMT will likely show that Japan’s deficit in trade in March was 100.8 billion yen. This is down from the 668.3 trillion yen reported in the preceding month.
According to the poll, imports increased by 28.9% between March and 2017, outpacing an exports increase of 17.5%.
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