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Russia faces economic upheaval, two years to return to inflation target

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO Elvira Nabirullina, the Governor of Russia’s Central Bank speaks in a interview held in Moscow on June 27, 2019. REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina//File Photo

(Reuters] Russia’s economy is not able to survive without its financial resources and it will need to adapt to the international sanctions. Elvira Nabiullina, Central Bank Governor, stated Monday.

Nabiullina spoke in the strongest speech of her life since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24th. She stated that inflation would need to be brought back to 4% by 2024.

The time when an economy can survive on its reserves is limited. Already in the third and fourth quarters, we’ll be entering a period that will see structural transformation and the pursuit of new business models,” she stated.

She said that although sanctions had mostly affected the financial markets, they would now “intensify the economic impact.”

The main problem will be related to restrictions on imports, logistics of foreign trade and later on with export restrictions.

Russian businesses would have to adjust, she said.

She stated that Russian manufacturers would need to find new logistics partners or change to produce products from previous generations.

Nabiullina said that the exporters need to search for partners or logistical arrangements. “All this will take time.”

Her suggestions included several steps to adapt the economy.

She said that the central bank had been considering making foreign currency proceeds more flexible for exporters. Also, the central bank was testing digital roubles in order to allow Russians to transfer funds between digital wallets.

She said that pilot operations related to this project were being planned for the second half the year.

When international sanctions were imposed on Russia, the central bank doubled its interest rate to 20%. However, it cut it to 17% this month, indicating a difficult economic environment as well as a slower inflation.

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