Case for half-percentage-point hike in May is ‘complete’ -Breaking
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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Mary Daly, chief research officer at San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, stands in front of the podium as she delivers a speech to the CFA Society, San Francisco, California. U.S. July 10, 2018. REUTERS/Ann Saphir(Reuters) – San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly on Wednesday said she believes the case for a half-percentage-point interest rate hike next month is “complete” and “solid,” with the U.S. central bank’s rate hike path this year broadly seen as appropriate in the face of high inflation.
Following a speech at University of Nevada Las Vegas, she stated, “My modal outlook” was that there would be a soft landing. The Fed will raise its benchmark overnight rate to 2.5% in the next year.
She said that if there’s a recession it won’t be severe, and will only last a few quarters, with growth “just slightly below zero”, but not long enough to stop a longer-term expansion.
She said that households and businesses find it “comforting,” at the same time, that the Fed raises rates. She said that this will help to bring down excessive inflation and slow the “frothy labor market”. The annual increase in consumer prices to March was 8.5%, marking the most rapid since late 1981. In addition, unemployment dropped to 3.6% with little job openings.
Daly stated that it was “premature” to predict how high rates would eventually need to go. Daly said that she would assess the economic consequences of tighter U.S. monetary policy, Russia’s war on Ukraine, and the condition of supply chain systems as the Fed raises interest rates.
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