Mary Daly of San Francisco Federal Reserve admitted Wednesday that the economy could be plunged into recession if there are a series of increases in interest rates over the coming months, but she stressed that that’s not what she expects.

Response to worst inflation the U.S. has seen in more than 40 years, the central bank official said she foresees “an expeditious march” through the year toward benchmark interest rates that would neither stimulate nor repress growth — the “neutral” rate, in Fed parlance.

She said, “Accounting the risks of being either too fast or too slowly, I see an expeditious march towards neutral by the close of the year to be a prudent course.”

Daly stated that the moves would slow down an already overheated economy, which now sees consumer price inflation at 8.5% annually.

She cited research from Princeton economist and former Fed vice chair Alan Blinder, who asserted that in 11 previous Fed hiking cycles, seven “were followed by a mild recession or none at all — basically a smooth landing,” she said in remarks at the University of Nevada Las Vegas. Now, as I am in Las Vegas I can tell you that those are very good odds.

Later, Daly answered a question about whether mild recession was equivalent to soft landing. She said that she expects the economy to slow down to something like “below-trend growth” but not to tip into negative territory. However, it could possibly tick into negative territory.

The economy would be in a mild recession. This is not the case with the financial crisis of 2008, or the stagflation years of the late 1970s.

Wall Street analysts see rising recession risk. Deutsche Bank has recently stated it sees a near-certainty of negative growthWhile Goldman Sachs suggested, about a 35% chanceOver the next two-years.

Responding to a CNBC query, Daly stated that “Recession” is a single word but can describe a wide range of outcomes. It can drop to a few quarters below zero. It’s quite different from something like the Volcker period or the financial crisis.

She added, “That’s certainly not something I was anticipating” or anything that would hinder the long-run expansion.

Markets expect that the Fed will increase interest rates by a number of times between now, and then. After a 25-basis point (or quarter percentage point) increase in March, there is an expectation of a series 50 basis point moves followed by a slowdown which will raise the benchmark fed funds rates to around 2.5% by year’s end. CME Group data.

Charles Evans of Chicago Fed stated earlier that “I am open to doing 50 base point increases in an effort to front-load some of this.” James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Fed said Monday that he would like to see rates rise faster. He believes a 75-basis point increase next month is appropriate. However traders have priced in zero chance.

Daly, for her part, said that she does not want the Fed to accelerate too fast as it could threaten the recovery of the pandemic-era, which was strong despite the historical inflation move.

She said, “If we relax the brakes and remove accommodation methodically and assess how much more is necessary, then we can transition smoothly and glide the economy towards its long-term sustainable track.”