LONDON (Reuters] – To avoid an energy crisis, the world will need to invest $1.3 trillion annually in infrastructure and energy. JP Morgan, a U.S. bank said that this was its first annual energy outlook.

According to strategists Marko Kolanovic, Christyan Malek, “Our major finding is that energy demand will outstrip supply growth by around 20% by 2030 based on the current trends,” they said.

The investment must include all fuels. With oil demand expected to rise by about 10% in 2030, while gas will grow by 18% by 2030, it is important to make sure that the total cost of capital includes oil, gas and renewables.

According to the outlook of 30 JP Morgan analysts, “Not all fuels will be equal” and, for the most part, (and within the time horizon), the different sources of energy may not be fully fungible. For example, solar panels can’t replace oil in industrial production of petroleum chemicals.”

This contrasts with last year’s message by the International Energy Agency, which stated that no additional investment in fossil fuels was necessary.

Since then, the IEA has clarified that it was only looking at one of the scenarios suggested and asked OPEC for additional oil.

On a long-term basis, the existing energy sources will all be considered transitional, meaning that they can provide energy for a more secure, clean, and affordable source. The JP Morgan outlook suggested that nuclear fusion might be the only source of this energy in the long term.

It stated that “Until reliable and affordable, scalable and clean technologies become available, the world must continue to use all current energy sources – both fossil and non-fossil”

According to the report, global energy end-use expenditures are expected to increase to 9.5% of world GDP by 2022, compared to an average 8.4% in 2015-2019.

JP Morgan stated that a further rise in energy prices would increase the likelihood of social unrest, and slow down in the transition to renewable energy.