By Ingrid Melander

PARIS (Reuters), Sunday’s voting will establish whether France’s pro-European centerist President Emmanuel Macron is elected or Marine Le Pen who is far-right-leaning and anti-immigration.

* WHO WILL WIN?

According to opinion polls, Macron is the most likely winner. However, this margin is smaller than 2017 when Le Pen won with 66% of the votes. Le Pen winning is not impossible, but it seems less likely than either of these scenarios.

* WHAT WILL BE DECISIVE?

What do voters most fear? Both candidates lack enough support to get them to the top. It is up to voters to believe that one candidate is worse than the other. Macron is banking on fear of the far-right, while Le Pen is banking on disenchantment about her opponent’s track record at power.

It will all depend on the decisions made by left-wing voters. Macron’s policy and style has upset many left-leaning people. It will be harder for him than 2017, to persuade enough voters and maintain the power of the far-right.

* WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

The winner of Sunday’s election will have won only after bitter and divisive campaigns, with probably a very small majority.

Macron would be facing a tough second mandate if he wins. There is little grace period. Voters of all colors will likely take to the streets to protest Macron’s plan to keep pro-business reforms in place, such as on pensions.

Le Pen’s victory would bring about a dramatic change in France’s foreign and domestic policies. Protests may begin as soon as possible.

In either case, winning the June elections will be one of the winners’ first tasks.

* WHAT ARE THE MAIN ISSUES FOR VOTERS?

Following a significant increase in energy costs and increasing inflation, voters are concerned about their purchasing power. Le Pen is able to focus her campaign on this topic.

– The war in Ukraine was the backdrop for the election campaign. The initial support for Macron was evident in polls, but this has since waned.

According to polls, voters disapprove of Macron’s economic policies. However, unemployment has fallen to its lowest level in many years. Respondents also don’t believe any other candidate would be better.

A role could be played by Macron’s response to the COVID-19 Pandemic.

* WHEN DO WE KNOW WHO WON?

The voting period begins at 0600 GMT on April 24,

After voting closes at 1800 GMT, exit polls will be published. French TV will then announce the winner. Although official results are not available until the end of the night, exit polls can be relied upon to provide reliable information.