By Michel Rose

PARIS (Reuters). – The hard part is here.

Emmanuel Macron might have beaten Marine Le Pen the far-right leader, but his second term may be more turbulent than the first due to mounting opposition and social unrest.

His supporters celebrated a victory at the Eiffel Tower rally on Sunday. On Monday, his lieutenants went around television studios acknowledging Le Pen’s extraordinary score of 42%.

Clement Beaune was Macron’s European affairs minister, and his close confidante, said, “With the far right at 40% it shows that we have more work ahead of us.” Olivier Veran (his health minister) said that a “change in method” is needed with further consultation.

Only a few more weeks are needed to reach the next obstacle. The next hurdle is only a few weeks away when Macron needs to be able to count on Parliamentary elections in June for the formation of the government he can rely upon to implement reform plans that will shake up France’s welfare system.

A new president can expect to be elected because there is generally very low turnout from supporters of the candidates who were defeated.

Le Pen was defiant in her concession speech. He promised strong opposition blocs in the parliament. After securing the majority of left-wing votes in the first round, Jean-Luc Melenchon is determined to become prime minister.

Melenchon plans to take that momentum into the next parliamentary elections, forcing Macron into awkward and conflict-prone “cohabitation” where he is in charge of a Left-wing majority.

Even if Macron’s allies win a majority of the vote or form a viable coalition, Macron will still have to face resistance from the street to his reform plans. This includes a pension reform which would slowly raise the minimum retirement age from 62 to 65.

‘LAME DUCK’

France is a country where pensions are a big issue. Macron’s 2017 score against Le Pen means that he will not have the same power to put in place reforms as five years ago. However, Macron was the only French President to have been reelected every two decades.

He is choosing by default to be elected. “He risks being a lame duck facing major social discontent if he implements sensitive reforms like for pensions,” Christopher Dembik from Saxo Bank told Reuters.

He was repeatedly warned by angry voters on the campaign trail about pension reform, which led to him conceding a potential cap of 64.

Philippe Martinez (the head of CGT union backed by the Communists) has warned Macron there will be no honeymoon and that demonstrations could occur if he doesn’t back down.

Skyrocketing energy costs will also be a volatile topic to address in the immediate aftermath.

Macron’s government imposed a cap on electricity prices. They also offered discounted prices at the pumps up to the end of the campaign. He stated during campaign that he would protect voters as long as it was necessary but did not give a clear timeframe.

The only thing that is certain is the need to lift these expensive measures. Legislators claim that constituents have already complained about the high price of many staples such as rice, bread, and sunflower oil from Ukraine.

France saw its worst social unrest in 2018 due to rising prices for fuel.

Macron must be careful if he does not want to see the tinderbox explode yet again.

His first term was littered by PR gaffes, which made him appear arrogant or patronizing. Many French dislike him. One man who was on his campaign trail said to him directly that he was “the worst President of the Fifth Republic.”

His political allies say he’ll need to consult more with lawmakers, unions, and civil society and get rid of the “Jupiterian” style of governing that he called his first term.

Patrick Vignal, a lawyer for Reuters said that Emmanuel Macron had understood that you cannot decide everything at the top. “He must embrace the notion of negotiation and consultation.