French citizens will head to the polls on Sunday for a presidential election against the background of conflict in Ukraine and an increasing cost of living.

The second — and final — round of voting sees centrist incumbent Emmanuel MacronMarine Le Pen is the far-right nationalist candidate. These same two were in the final round back in 2017, but political commentators think Le Pen is better this time.

Macron will likely be reelected Sunday but around 13-15% remain undecided. In a Thursday research note, Antonio Barroso (deputy director of research at Teneo), stated that there are still surprises.

Barroso indicated that Le Pen could be won if a large number of voters who voted in Jean-Luc Melenchon, the hard-left candidate, switch to the radical right.

pollOut Thursday forecast that Macron would win round two with 55% of the votes. Le Pen was on 45%. However, this margin is smaller than the 2017 French election result. Macron defeated Le Pen’s National Front party with 66.1% votes to his own 33.9%.

According to opinion polls, Macron has a 55% to 45% advantage over Le Pen. Polls over the last five years have never underestimated Le Pen’s support. However, up to 25% voters remain undecided this week. Analysts at Berenberg stated in a Friday research note that they cannot rule out a surprise win for Le Pen. They also said that France and the EU have a lot at stake.

Since 2017, Le Pen’s rhetoric towards the European Union has been more relaxed. She is no longer campaigning for France to leave the EU and the euro, saying she wants to transform the bloc into an alliance of nations — fundamentally changing the way it works. Also, she wants French troops out of NATO’s Military Command.

Le Pen’s narrow “France first” approach, and her ambition to make French laws more important than EU regulations would lead to constant friction with the EU. This could harm business relations and discourage foreign investors. Analysts Berenberg said that France would be back.

Then they added, “She would like to maintain outdated economic structures via subsidies and regulations.” Macron desires to lower the retirement age from 60 to 62 years after working 40-42 years. to raise the retirement ageTo 65

Le Pen was told by Macron during two hours of talks that “when you talk to Russia you are talking to your banker” according to translation. Le Pen’s party requested loans in 2014 from Russian banks, including the First Czech Russian Bank — a lender that is said to have links to the Kremlin. Le Pen denied the charges Wednesday and said that “I’m a completely independent woman.”

CNBC’s Jim Shields, a professor of French politics at Warwick University, said Wednesday that Macron had to defend his five-year tenure and present a new vision for the future.

He said that Le Pen could play the game of change this round better than Macron. “He needs to demonstrate empathy and get off his high horse. He should show concern for people’s daily concerns.

Each candidate must try to fix their perceived weaknesses. Shields stated that Macron’s lack of credibility is a problem for Le Pen and Macron’s lack of connection, empathy to win new voters.

Macron will be the first person in 20 years to be reelected. In the lead up to the election, the yield of the 10-year French bond was higher than the 1% threshold. This is despite wider worries about inflation and war in Ukraine.