Inflation, supply issues threaten 2022 profits
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Detroit’s Renaissance Center houses the General Motors headquarters.
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DETROIT – There’s growing concern among Wall Street analysts that higher costs supply chain disruptions will put pressure on 2022 earnings for General Motors and Ford Motor — even more than initially expected.
Many analysts have cited problems such as inflation and part disruptions from the coronavirus epidemic ahead of this week’s Detroit automakers earnings reports. the war in Ukraineas well as the larger automotive industry.
Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan Analyst, trimmed Monday’s first quarter estimates for GM and Ford. This was the second such reduction.
He stated that while commodity prices have stabilized, but are still volatile, suppliers will be asking for higher prices at GM and Ford to compensate for increasing costs in non-commodity supply chains.
JPMorgan expects GM to earn $1.52 per share in the first quarter, down from $1.58. This is below Refinitiv’s average forecast of $1.68. Ford was forecast to be 41 cents per share. This is a slight decrease from the 52 cents, but still slightly more than what Refinitiv consensus estimates of 38 cents.
GM will report its first quarter results Tuesday after the close of the markets, and Ford Wednesday.
Evercore ISI, in a last week note to investors stated that it believes Ford will reduce its outlook for 2022 due to growing problems. The company is now exposed to European supply chain issues due to war, as well as the higher cost of aluminum in top-selling F-Series pickups.
Beginning March Ford reaffirmed its expectationsPretax profits between $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion per year. According to analysts, however, supply chain problems are becoming more complicated.
GM had previously predicted a pretax profit in excess of $800 $13 billion to $15 billionFor 2022 however, Evercore ISI stated that it was “not clear” if the company will suffer a “small potential cut” in its top-end guidance..GM is much less exposed to Europe than Ford or other automakers, but it continues to struggle with supply chain issues in China and North America.
John Murphy from BofA Securities stated that, generally, many initial guidance provided by automotive companies was “now to optimistic” considering the number of issues facing the sector.
The current global semiconductor shortage, the incremental Covid-19 epidemics and subsequent shut downs in Asia, increased geopolitical tension due to the Ukraine-invasion and a multitude of other supply chain disruptions have impacted the general industry sentiment (corporates, investors etc.). In an investor note, he stated that the industry remains “very cautious” last week.
Horst Scheiber, an analyst at BofA in Europe, was on Tuesday downgraded StellantisDue to Europe’s supply chain issues and exposure, it went from being “buy” into “neutral”.
Stellantis was created by the merger between Fiat Chrysler (France-based Groupe PSA) in January 2021. It is expected to publish its first quarter shipments and revenues on May 5.
—CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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