Hilary Russ and Uday Sampath,

(Reuters] – McDonald’s could take a larger financial hit due to the conflict in Ukraine, and the closure of Russian locations. Investors will watch Thursday’s first quarter earnings reports to determine how much it stands to lose.

The average estimate for McDonald’s Corp’s full-year earnings has fallen to 9.81 per share, just over 3% from the March 8 announcement that McDonald’s would cease operations in Russia due to Moscow’s invasion.

McDonald’s had previously stated that the cost of suspending operations would be $50 million per month. This includes lost revenue, continuing to pay leases and wages for Ukraine and Russia employees. Analysts have cautioned however that this figure may rise as the ruble recovers.

We believe that it would be prudent to project a total loss of Russian revenue given Russia’s current situation. Peter Saleh from BTIG said the only thing that could make the difference is whether management continues to pay employees in this market.

McDonald’s announced that it would close 847 of its restaurants in Russia temporarily. This set off an avalanche of similar announcements from other chain stores. McDonald’s became the first Western company to establish a presence in Russia after the Soviet Union collapsed. The chain now controls 84% of these locations.

Reports from media reported that franchised Russian locations were still available as of March mid-March. Reuters was unable to confirm the availability of these locations as of April 27, so we are unsure if they have been closed. McDonald’s declined to comment on requests.

In 2021, McDonald’s worldwide revenue was approximately 9%. This is far higher than the global revenues of other fast-food restaurants in the area.

Analysts have reduced their McDonald’s profits forecasts for 2022-2023 after closing down company-operated McDonald’s stores in a once important growth area.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) The company now anticipates that it will earn a net profit of $9.25 per share this year, and $10.62 in 2023 from fast-food chain, a reduction of 8% and 3 respectively from its previous view.