This is accelerating the rise in inflation which has already affected the 500 million-plus population, especially the poorest. 

Kamal Alam told CNBC that economics and inflation are crucial for stabilizing the region. Kamal Alam is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council.

Alam referred to Mohammed Bouazizizi’s self-immolation as a protest act. This young Tunisian street vendor was the catalyst for the Arab Spring demonstrations in 2011.  

“Even the Tunisian man who burnt himself in Tunisia was not doing so out of indignation economics, but Ben Ali,” he stated. The main cause of unrest throughout the Arab world would be lack economic mobility.  

The International Monetary Fund reports that inflation reached 14.8% in the MENA area in 2021. Already at that point, higher food prices were the main driver — making up about 60% of the increase in the region, excluding the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council states.  

This was prior to the outbreak of war in Ukraine. The U.N. now claims that food prices are up 34% compared to a year ago. 

David Beasley was the executive director for U.N. World Food Programme. He said that 45 million people are now in 38 countries, and that famine is on their minds. While you might see an increase in food prices, say, 38-40%, in certain areas it could be as high as 100-2000%, just like what happened in Syria.  

Countries will look for alternatives to imports of food essentials. However, rising global inflation and possible export restrictions mean that switching can be costly. The MENA region is also plagued by water shortages, which means that local agriculture production is extremely limited.

Egypt is the Arab world’s largest country and imports over 80% of its wheat only from Russia and Ukraine. The country, Lebanon, is already in a crisis of inflation and debt, with 60% of its wheat coming from Russia and Ukraine.     

Egypt is at risk because its bread-subsidy program covers over half of Arabs and serves as a foundation for stability in most Arab states,” stated Amer Alhussein (economic development expert, advisor for Plant for Peace). 

He says this could be why Egypt’s rich Gulf allies have come to Egypt’s aid, providing billions in funding for its central bank, and other investments that will boost its economy. 

Alhussein stated that Egypt’s government is able to borrow money but rising interest rates and low appetite for emerging market debts will put pressure on Egypt. “This could become a sovereign risk factor, and cause a default that would have devastating consequences for its people.”

Alhussein stated that Lebanon is currently facing “many warnings about an imminent famine.” Alhussein said that the current situation could quickly turn into protests, riots, and similar events to the one in 2019. However, the violence will be much greater due to the declining standard of living in Lebanon and the lack of adequate food security. 

In its latest Middle East and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook, released Wednesday, the IMF stated that higher wheat prices “can increase (the Middle East’s) external financing requirements by up to $10 million in 2022,” further adding that even just raising their wheat prices could lead to an increase in Middle East’s foreign finance needs of as high as $10 billion. As they could also be subject to aid diversion, supply shortages from Russia or Ukraine may pose a threat to food security. 

Analysts estimate that about 25% of Ukraine’s pre-invasion wheat crop is still on the market, although it will only last for three months. 

According to the WFP, Beasley, this fall is the time when war will have a real impact on MENA. He believes that mass migration could be triggered by such a crisis.