WASHINGTON (Reuters] – A retreat from global commerce and fragmentation would leave countries vulnerable to the production shocks arising out of natural disasters, such as epidemics of fatal illnesses and other crises.

Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, Director General of WTO, stated that economists have estimated that global GDP could be reduced by 5% if there is a more fragmented economy.

These losses will be compounded with higher transaction costs, and imbalance of payments distress. This would make it harder to address problems like climate change or stabilize global fertilizer and food markets, which were badly affected by the conflict in Ukraine.