BEIJING (Reuters – A Reuters poll revealed that the decline in Chinese factory activities likely increased in April. The extensive lockdowns that halted production disrupted supply chains and impeded production made it difficult to predict the future economic outlook for the quarter.

According to the consensus forecast of 26 economists polled on Friday by Reuters, the official manufacturing Purchasing Managements’ Index (PMI), will drop to 48.0 in April. This is the lowest reading since February 2020 and down from 49.5 during March.

If the reading is below 50, it indicates contraction in comparison to the month before. A reading above 50 suggests expansion.

The plunge in activity was predicted by analysts due to the worsening COVID status in China, and the increasing anti-virus measures. This included the April lockdown at Shanghai, which lasted for almost a month.

Tesla (NASDAQ): Wednesday’s production drop was caused by China’s curbs. The company had previously stated last week that its Shanghai factory lost around a month of volume due to China shutdowns.

Analysts at the Institute for Supply Chain Management (ASC) have found that domestic supply chains were disrupted by April’s partial and full lockdowns in important manufacturing centers like Shanghai, Suzhou, and Ningbo. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: ) said that even though production may not be able to sustain completely under closed-loop management systems, it could partially support.

Morgan Stanley analysts stated that the lockdown would have a greater impact than the headline PMI. This is due to the support of longer supplier delivery times and road logistic disruptions.

China has pledged to reduce bottlenecks within supply chains that are affected by COVID. According to Premier Li Keqiang’s State Council meeting on Wednesday, state television reported.

Despite the fact that COVID incidences have declined in Shanghai in the last few days, Beijing, China’s capital, is still dealing with new outbreaks. This has led to mobility restrictions and mass testing in certain areas.

Nomura analysts project China’s GDP growth to rise 1.8% in the second quarter, year-on-year.

The Saturday release of the official PMI (which mainly focuses on state-owned and large companies) and its sister survey will focus on services.

On the same day, Caixin’s manufacturing PMI for private sector, which is more focused on smaller firms, will also be released. Its headline reading is expected to fall from 48.1 last month to 47.0.