Jason Lange, James Oliphant

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Control of the U.S. Congress is at stake in this November’s midterm elections, along with President Joe Biden’s remaining policy agenda.

Republicans are likely to take control of U.S. House of Representatives. However, Democrats will have greater chances of keeping a majority of Senate seats. It would likely be enough for Biden’s fellow Democrats to block any legislation they want, and it could also lead to new investigations by the Congress.

HEADWINDS HISTORICAL

In the initial term of a president, the party at power usually loses House seats.

Democratic President Barack Obama’s party suffered a catastrophic loss of 63 seats in 2010 elections during his first term. In 2018, two years into Donald Trump’s presidency, the Republican Party gave up 41 House seats. Both instances saw control of the chamber flip.

To win the majority of the 435 member chamber, Republicans will need to only gain five seats this year.

The practice of gerrymandering has increased their prospects of winning seats. This is the unique drawing by state legislatures of congressional districts. The vast majority of U.S. Statehouses are controlled by Republicans. They have made use of that power to create districts that favour their candidates and make it less competitive.

Democrats hoped that their New York-based map would be more aggressive than Republican gains in Texas and Florida. Recent court decisions invalidated New York’s congressional map. This strengthened Republican gerrymandering.

SOME DEMOCRATS GO FOR THE DOOR

House Democrats fleeing from a Republican takeover are sprinting for their lives. Thirty-eight House Democrats have so far announced that they will be retiring from the party or are seeking another office. This is the highest total since 1992.

Republicans will need only to win one seat to control the U.S. Senate. The current split is 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris being the tie-breaking vote.

The party could retain seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, where the Democratic incumbents are proven to be resilient, while Republicans may lose seats in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. These states voted for Trump instead of Biden during the 2020 election.

A so-called Republican wave could result in all those seats going that party’s way, along perhaps with New Hampshire, which would give it a 54-49 majority.

BIDEN UNDERWATER

Although Biden will not be on the November ballots, the midterms often serve as a referendum about the president. Biden is currently in trouble for Democrats.

More than half of the country – 53% – disapproves of his performance, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted April 25-26. 60% of respondents said that the country was heading in the wrong direction. This includes 40% of Democrats, and 54% who identify as independent.

Gallup and other opinion polls show similar levels. Biden actually is less popular than Obama in 2010, when Democrats won the House election.

Democratic agents fear that Biden’s popularity may decrease turnout among their voter base, but they are motivated to bring out more Republicans.

Trump is also not listed on the ballot. Trump is supporting a group of candidates who share his views. He wants to be the party’s de facto leader and another chance at the White House in 2024.

START AND STOP ECONOMY

Democrats have failed to realize their hopes for a quick economic recovery following the COVID-19 epidemic that would improve their long-term prospects.

Although there has been a dramatic drop in unemployment, inflation continues to plague the economy, driving up prices for household staples, such as food, and energy. The nation’s first quarter 2022 gross domestic product fell slightly due to supply-chain disruptions. This was the worst performance for two years, but analysts believe there are little chances of it entering recession.

Biden campaign promises were thwarted because of infighting within Democratic lawmakers. After passing an infrastructure bill and a huge rescue package last year, Congress is still stuck in negotiations for additional coronavirus assistance.

FEW COMPETITIVE RACES

The number of districts in Congress that are truly competitive as a result has fallen dramatically due to gerrymandering, and the increased polarization among the electorate.

Fewer than 20 House races are viewed by election analysts as true tossups — and only 32 races can be considered competitive, according to an aggregate of leading election analysts.

This means that Democrats have fewer chances to regain seats in other races. In many of these competitive races, Democrats’ retirements have made it difficult for the party to keep the seats.

According to the political climate and other factors, such as demographics and geography, forecasters like the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and the University of Virginia Center for Politics see Republicans as favorite candidates for the House.

David Wasserman is an election analyst at the Cook Political Report. He said that the outcome of the House Democrats’ elections will be somewhere in between “terrible” and “horrific”, with the former being the loss more than 30 seats.