Brad Brooks and Tim Reid

PHOENIX/COMMERCE CITY (Colo.) – Ricardo Aguirre sat near his two taco stands and complained about the soaring prices of tomatoes, onions and cilantro. He is a Phoenix-based caterer.

    Aguirre, 43, usually votes for the Democratic Party. He has a warning to Democrats about inflation, which hit a record high of 40 years in February.

    “If the Republican Party has something better to offer us, I will vote Republican,” said Aguirre. Aguirre believes Republicans have a better understanding of economics and can reduce prices more effectively than Republicans.

    Aguirre runs Tamales y Tacos Puebla from the heavily Hispanic Alhambra neighborhood in Phoenix, where talk of record-high gas and food prices was dominating conversations in front gardens, stores and restaurants when Reuters visited.

    Of 35 Hispanic voters Reuters spoke to in two toss-up races in Arizona and Colorado, 20 – including Aguirre – said soaring inflation is causing them to seriously consider voting for Republicans. Most of them said that they vote Democrat most often.

    Many said they don’t necessarily blame Democrats but have lost faith in their ability to solve inflation and are increasingly willing to let Republicans try.

    Even a small loss of support among Hispanics – a key component of the Democratic coalition of voters that brought President Joe Biden to power – could mean the loss of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate for Democrats.

    Four of the top 15 congressional targets for Republicans are races with heavy Mexican-American populations, according to Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist based in California.

    Inflation is now the top worry among Hispanic voters, according to an Axios-Ipsos poll released in March. Quinnipiac University’s April 13 poll found that only 26% of Hispanics approved of Biden’s job performance. This is the lowest percentage of any demographic.

It could indicate that Latinos are losing support for Democrats in the long-term, according to pollsters.

Biden was elected the 2016 presidential candidate by 61% Latino voters. However, there was a swing of 8% towards his Republican rival, Donald Trump. This is according to Catalist, a Democratic polling company.

Hispanic voters make up a significant and varied segment of the population and they are diverse in their voting habits. For example, Florida has many Cuban-Americans that are more conservative than others. A majority of Americans in the American Midwest or West are Mexican immigrants. They tend to vote Democrat and reside in swing states such as Arizona.

    ‘I’M WILLING TO CHANGE MY VOTE’

    Democratic U.S. Arizona Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Kelly faces a difficult re-election. Biden won Arizona by just under 10,000 votes, and Kelly only by 2.4 percentage points. Republicans view the 32% Latino state as an opportunity to pick up the Senate’s control.

    In the Maryvale district of Phoenix, retiree Jose L. Mendez, 66, stands with his wife Maria, 63, next to a shopping cart filled with rice, pinto beans, tacos and kitchen roll.

    Mendez, who has voted Democratic every year since 1988, had driven 45 minutes to hunt for bargains. Mendez believes that rising prices are partly due to Democratic spending and suggests Republicans could do a better job.

    “Inflation has affected us a lot. He stated that he was willing to alter his vote.

    Of the 18 Hispanic voters in Phoenix who spoke to Reuters, all said inflation was by far the most pressing issue for them. Families were feeling a lot of pressure from record high gas prices as well as a tripling or doubling in food costs.

“Groceries are on the rise and gas prices continue to climb!” Kelly in a Republican advertisement on Spanish-language Arizona television, March.

Many aren’t changing their vote. Daniella Villa (36), arrived at El Super in Maryvale to report that inflation is hard and gas prices are “crazy”, but she’ll still support Kelly and the Democrats for November.

    Kelly has urged the Biden administration to take more steps to lower gas prices and introduced a Senate bill to temporarily suspend the federal gas tax.

    A White House spokesperson blamed high prices largely on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and said Latino families had benefited from Biden’s 2021 $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act, which expanded the child tax credit, sent direct cash payments to most Americans, and bailed out businesses.

    “President Biden knows how higher prices can impact a family budget,” the spokesperson said. He is working tirelessly to lower gas prices, and reduce kitchen costs for Latino families.

    Most economists say inflation is caused by a number of factors, largely beyond Biden’s control. While global supply chain disruptions have contributed to price increases, oil prices rose even before the conflict in Ukraine. Economists agree that the Biden government’s COVID relief spending has contributed to rising prices. However, it is important to note that a failure to rescue the economy from its financial crisis would have triggered a recession.

The spokesperson for Republican National Committee stated that the party will highlight what Democrats call reckless spending as a contributing factor to the rise in inflation.

    They will tell voters that Republican-controlled states such as Florida and Texas that kept schools and businesses open during the pandemic will be used as a role model for Hispanic voters who they say want to work and earn higher wages.

    DANGEROUS TIMES FOR DEMOCRATS

    Jaime Regalado, professor of political science at California State University, Los Angeles, and an expert on Hispanic voting patterns, said inflation was a nightmare issue for Democrats.

    “We are coming into a midterm cycle that rarely favors the party in power, even in better times. He said that inflation is a problem, and they don’t know if it will end soon.

    Hispanics comprise nearly 39% of the electorate in Colorado’s 8th congressional district, north of Denver, a newly created House seat that is evenly split between registered Democrats and Republicans.

    In the district’s town of Platteville, Daniela Castro Tobar, 19, was working the front of Rosalee’s, her family’s restaurant. Although she considers herself to be a liberal, she voted in 2020 for Biden. However, the economic hardship inflation has caused her family makes her question her support of Democrats.

    “I’m very open to either party right now. Castro stated that we are all in pain right now and all of us have to deal with inflation.

Americans from all walks of life believe inflation is a serious problem. A 2021 Bank of America survey (NYSE:) found that Americans of all backgrounds believe inflation is a concern. In particular, Black and Latino families spend more on staples that are susceptible to price increases like food and gasoline.

    Julian Verdugo was still dressed in his dusty oilfield work clothes when he took over behind the counter in the small Mexican sweets shop his family owns in Commerce City, a heavily Latino area near Platteville.

    As the 24-year-old helped a customer decide what treats she should stock up on for a party, he explained why he was considering casting his ballot for Republicans, breaking with family tradition. 

    “I was raised as a Democrat. He said that he had worked in the oil-and gas industry and realized that the Democrats were against it. We’ve been forced to increase prices at this candy shop 3 times over the past three months due to fuel inflation. Our products come from Mexico.

    Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist involved in Latino outreach efforts in the 8th district, said he sees the district as a 2020 bellwether because of its large Hispanic population.

    “If Democrats lose Colorado 8 it’s almost guaranteed that they lose their majority in the Congress,” Rocha said. They will lose all of their seats if they can’t win in Colorado a seat that is 50-50 and has a 40% Latino population.