Clodagh Kilcoyne and Amanda Ferguson

BELFAST (Reuters – Sinn Fein is poised to be the largest party in Northern Ireland’s new government following Thursday’s elections, a significant step in the quest for a united Ireland.

   The one-time political pariah has an 8-point advantage ahead of the May 5 election for the Northern Ireland Assembly, an opinion poll showed on Tuesday.

The historic 24 year anniversary of the Good Friday ceasefire, which ended decades of violence and sectarian strife, would see the Irish nationalist party win the British-run provincial for the first ever time. This also brings Sinn Fein closer towards becoming the leading party on the Irish border.

Sinn Fein is gaining momentum, even though a referendum which could lead to unity with Ireland’s neighbours may be many years off.

Michelle O’Neill, Sinn Fein’s Northern Ireland leader, said to Reuters that the country is in a “decade of opportunity”, a decade in which it can bring about change.

“I don’t care as much about the dates of a referendum, but I am more focused on the planning and work needed to make the change happen.

Sinn Fein’s leadership is based on a newer generation of politicians, with fewer ties to the IRA or Northern Ireland’s Troubles when 3600 were killed. They ask that Dublin’s government prepare for possible border elections.

Pre-election surveys in north Belfast’s patchwork constituency suggest that voters are not thinking about leaving Britain.

While Sinn Fein campaigners are greeted by some houses flying Irish tricolours and another with a sign reading ‘céad míle fáilte’ – the Irish for welcome – the rocketing cost of living and a struggling health service are the chief concerns.

Chris Donnelly (political commentator, former Sinn Fein candidate) said that Sinn Fein had run a very nuanced campaign. He praised the party’s reticence to push for a united Ireland.

The 17-page manifesto only contains one page about Irish unity.

Similar results are seen in Ireland, where a wider Sinn Fein lead is evident in opinion polls before national elections three years later. This isn’t a sign that Irish unity tops the agenda.

Sinn Fein stunned Ireland’s political establishment by getting more votes in 2020 than any other party. It forced Ireland’s dominant centre-right parties, which were already at the top of the polls, to come together for the first time and keep their left-wing counterparts from power.

Exit polls showed that 60% of voters voted for the housing crisis, and the problems with the health system as the top two most pressing issues. In the poll, the pollsters found it not worth including Irish unity as one option.

UNIONISTS ARE STRESSED

To galvanize support, pro-British parties use Sinn Fein’s call to remove Northern Ireland from England, Scotland, and Wales.

Jeffrey Donaldson of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), leader of the biggest pro British party said that unionists “are very concerned about Sinn Fein victory in terms of their divisive borders poll plans.”

The DUP’s collapse in support during the past 18 months is what is causing it to be poised for losing the office of Northern Ireland’s first minister to Sinn Fein. This is because the structure under which the major nationalist and unionist rivals must share power is a disaster.

The Unionists won less than half the seats at 2017’s election. Polls indicate that the anger generated by the post-Brexit border checks between Northern Ireland, the UK and other countries is likely to spread that vote more broadly among the unionist parties.

Monday’s poll revealed that the cross-community Alliance Party may catch the DUP. It was an unlikely prospect just five years back.

The debate over a United Ireland was given a boost by Brexit. However, Sinn Fein’s ability to control it will be severely limited due to having to share power the unionist rivals.

Under the terms of 1998 peace treat, it is up to the British government to conduct a referendum. If they think a “yes majority” looks probable, however. Recent opinion polls in Northern Ireland have shown that most people support the status-quo.

However, analysts still believe that Thursday’s victory by Sinn Fein could mark a turning point.

“It would make a difference if a party that is committed to changing sovereignty from the United Kingdom into a United Ireland becomes the largest representative party,” stated Donnelly, a political commentator.