By Marc Jones

LONDON, (Reuters) – Global supply chain issues look set to get worse, a new study has revealed. China’s COVID-19 lockdowns and Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, among others, cause longer delays and increase costs, and also slow down ports.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), a research firm, discovered that approximately one fifth of all global container ships were currently in traffic jams at different ports.

China now has 344 ships in China awaiting to be berth. That’s a 34% increase in vessels awaiting berth. Shipping from China to America takes an average of 74 days.

Shipping from China is also arriving in Europe four days late. This causes a lot of problems, including the shortage of container space to carry European-made goods up to the U.S. east Coast.

RBC’s Head for Digital Intelligence Strategy and Jack Evans said that “global port congestion is getting worsening” and was becoming more widespread. They also acknowledged it wasn’t easy to predict when they would get better.

Containers and ships should both be readily available to avoid cancelled bookings. If there is a mismatch, ships will run below capacity. Therefore, additional freight must be moved.

RBC stated that the multitude of problems had a domino-like effect on different markets.

SHIP DELAYS

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February and the sinking of several ships in the Black Sea meant insurers had hiked premiums to between 1% and 5% of the value of the ship compared to pre-war levels of 0.25%.

Marine fuel prices in Singapore, the world’s largest refuelling port, meanwhile, have jumped 66% over the past year.

The report stated that “many market players believed supply chains would untangle by now.”

Even though vessel delays are now fractionally less frequent over the last few months, RBC found that March’s average global delay in ship arrivals was still 7.26 Days. That is an increase of just 4.5 days from normal times.

Long Beach and Los Angeles continue to be the most affected ports on the U.S. West Coast.

Due to a queue of 19 vessels and inefficiency at the port, Time of Turnaround has jumped from 5. days to 6.9 days last month. However it remains below its peak of 8.7 day during last year’s rush before Christmas.

Russia has called the Ukraine “special military operation”. This means that several shipping lines across Europe have been unable to transport people into the Baltic or Black Seas.

Numerous European countries have also banned Russian flagged vessels from their ports. This has led to increased activity in European ports from container ships and rerouted flows.

Rotterdam and Antwerp are the largest European container ports. Their ToT is 8%, 30%, and 21%, respectively, above their 5-year average levels.

RBC analysts stated, “Significant reductions of ToT times will be required before we are able to confidently suggest an avenue toward normalizing shipping cost.” “The problem? “Things are worsening.”