On May 9 Putin could look to declare victory in Ukraine
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Russian military vehicles practice ahead of Russia’s victory day military parade, which will be held at Red Square, Moscow, Russia, on May 4, 2022. It marks the 77th anniversary the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.
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As Russia approaches one of the most significant days in its calendar, speculation is rife that President Vladimir Putin could use May 9 to declare some kind of victory in Ukraine — or even all-out war.
Also known as Victory Day, May 9 marks Russia’s anniversary of defeating Nazi Germany in World War II.
Moscow displays its military might in pomp, pride, pageantry and military maneuvers. Putin and senior Kremlin officials watch the parades.
Because Russia has invaded Ukraine’s neighbor, Feb. 24, this will make the anniversary even more significant.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Commander-in-Chief Armed Forces Sergei Shoigu (L), and President of Kazakhstan Kassym Jomart Tkayev (R), during a Victory Day parade, marking the 75th anniversary the victory in World War II. The event took place in Moscow (Russia) on June 24, 2020.
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Victory or mass mobilisation
Western officials and geopolitical analysts, as well as Ukrainian intelligence, suggest that Putin could use this year’s Victory Day to announce a win in Ukraine — specifically in the eastern Donbas region where its forces have concentrated their attacks in recent weeks.
It is possible that Russia will double down on its invasion and order the mobilization, both of its citizens and army, on a war-time basis.
Russia’s recent attacks against Ukraine have been intensified. Russia, which has pulled its troops back from the North in recent weeks has concentrated on seizing key strategic locations in south and east Ukraine. This includes the Donbas, where it has supported separatist rebels over the past eight years.
William Alberque (director of strategy, technology, and arms control, International Institute for Strategic Studies) said that there were “two big options” for Putin when he looks ahead to Victory Day.
One is that he declares victory by presenting what he has, and then he adds: “Look, I increased the DPR-LPR.” [the two pro-Russian “People’s Republics” in Donetsk and Lugansk]Alberque stated that he had connected the two to Crimea via the land bridge and secured water supply for Crimea.
Or, he could declare actual war or total war mobilization.
Alberque declared that because of the unpredictability of Putin’s leadership Alberque suggested “ultimately, we must prepare for the worse.”
Putin would take a huge step to mobilize Russia’s people for wartime operations. But, this could put him at high risk of public dissent. Especially if thousands are made up of untrained young Russian conscripts who will be fighting in the war.
In March, Putin signed a decree ordering 134,500 new conscripts into the armyThey raised eyebrows by suggesting that they might be destined to fight for Ukraine. Putin insisted otherwise.
A tank belonging to pro-Russian rebels is seen in separatist-controlled Donetsk, Ukraine on March 11, 2022.
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Russia repeatedly denies that May 9th will signal the declaration of war against Ukraine. Since its invasion, Russia has avoided the use of the word “war”, instead calling the operation a “specially military operation.”
Dmitry Peskov Putin’s Press secretary, said this week that journalists who asked about Putin’s likelihood of declaring war in Ukraine were wrong. He replied, “no. This is absurd.”
Russia is “preparing”
When asked whether Russia is planning to announce a full mobilization on May 9, Kyiv’s Defense Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov appeared certain.
“Yes, they are preparing,” he said, adding that Rosreserv — Russia’s state agency responsible for storing, securing and managing reserves of food and state-owned equipment in preparation for states of emergency — had “started to check what they actually have in stock and to calculate what they can give out on mobilization orders.”
He said, “This step is absolutely essential before we can start real mobilization.”
Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, watches the Victory Day Military Parade in Red Square, marking the 75th Anniversary of World War II victory, which took place on June 24, 2020, in Moscow, Russia.
Outreach
Putin would liken Russia’s defence of Ukraine in World War II to its invasion of Ukraine on Victory Day, which focuses solely on Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany.
Last week, Ben Wallace, Britain’s Defence Minister said that Putin wouldn’t be surprised to use Victory Day as an excuse for declaring Russia at war with “the world’s Nazis.” In an attempt to justify the invasion of Russia to its citizens, the Kremlin repeatedly claimed that Ukraine’s government was led by Nazis. Experts disagree with this claim.
What would Putin do if he had to go that far?
It is possible that any mass mobilization might be followed by Russia’s introduction of martial law. This move would give Putin extraordinary power, which could allow him to increase his influence over Russia’s citizens and economy.
It would give him the ability to close Russia’s borders, censor communications and seize private property. He could also impose curfews and control food supplies to force the people to participate in wartime operations, even to the extent of forcing them to work for his defense.
Russia’s constitution permits martial law to apply if it is under attack from any external force. However, there are worries that Russia may prepare an “false Flag” attack in order to justify war.
On May 4, 2022 Russian forces continue to attack Mariupol in Ukraine, causing destruction of buildings.
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This raises the question of how far Putin will go in order to reach his goals in Ukraine.
CNBC spoke with Maximilian Hess who is a fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute. He said that it was clear that he wanted to win something that he considered a significant victory, and that this would happen soon.
Hess stated that Putin wanted to “completely eliminate” the Ukrainian military in Donetsk, Lugansk. However, “I do not believe that this is where he intends to stop.”
He said, “Whether Russia has an overarching strategy in military operations remains to be determined. But the tactic seems brutal.”
Most people believe that Russia has shifted its focus on Donbas to claim all of the territory. It also wants to make a land link from Russia to Crimea which it annexed on the south Ukrainian coast in 2014. It would have access to the Black Sea ports that are vital to its economy and its military fleet.
The battered coastal city of Mariupol — home to some of the most intense fighting over recent weeks — appears to is a key part of this plan, as its capture would help Russia secure the link between Crimea and the Donbas.
According to the U.K. Ministry of Defence, Russian forces attacked the Azovstal steel facility in the capital for the second day despite Russian assertions that they only wanted it closed.
Ministry tweeted that Russia is making renewed efforts to seize Azovstal, and capture Mariupol. This could be due to Putin’s wish to achieve symbolic success in Ukraine.
Russia is asking whether the Russian capture of Mariupol or control over the Donbas would be satisfactory, while Ukraine says that it’s not ready to give up any territory. This points to an ongoing conflict which could go on for many years. The conflict in Ukraine is a war on attrition. There could be massive losses for both sides, and there may not even be a “victorious” side.
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