By Maya Gebeily

TRIPOLI, Lebanon (Reuters – There are very serious stakes in Lebanon’s election. Hezbollah’s heavily armed opposition has fallen into disarray. It now has an opportunity to seize power in a nation that is sinking into poverty.

Abdallah al-Rahman, however, will not cast a vote.

“I will’t vote to anyone,” declared the activist with a wiry hair, dismissing all the candidates whose photos are posted on large billboards in Tripoli, Lebanon’s second-largest city.

Rahman hails from the Sunni Muslim group, one the largest groups of the country, and is a traditional counterweight for Hezbollah (a powerful Shi’ite-backed Iranian group).

He is, however, skipping the election, just like his Sunni counterparts, following the sudden withdrawal of the long-serving leader of the community, Saad Al-Hariri (scion of an political dynasty),

Rami Harrouq who is a Hariri scion living in Bab al-Tebbaneh north Tripoli will not also be taking part. The 39-year old factory worker has lost interest in other candidates and is feeling the effects of the country’s economic downturn.

“We carry a lot of resentment against politicians – especially in Tripoli. “These last two years have seen a lot of distress for us,” he stated. “Of course I won’t vote.”

According to political experts, high abstentions by Sunnis and a fracture of Sunni votes as a result Hariri’s turning his back from politics could be a problem for Hezbollah or its allies. They collectively won 71 out of 128 seats in Lebanon when it last voted in 2018.

Ibrahim al-Jawhari said, “Because what Saad Hariri done, Hezbollah now have two-thirds the parliament within its sights,” referring specifically to the threshold which would safeguard the group’s allies against vetoes.

Hezbollah would have far reaching effects beyond its small population of around 7 million. Israel, Lebanon’s neighbor to the south and a former warlord against the terrorist group, views it as a threat to national security. It is classified as terrorist by Washington, London, and many other European countries.

This would be a positive political change in favor of the movement and it would confirm Lebanon’s place within the regional influence of Iran. Iran is currently fighting a proxy war with Sunni archrival Saudi Arabia throughout the Middle East, and is at odds with the United States.

Hezbollah occupies an exceptional place in Lebanese society. The paramilitary arm of Hezbollah has an arsenal that is more powerful than the army national, and it also runs schools and hospitals. This gives the organization the title “state within the state”.

According to the group, it does not expect the composition of the new parliament will differ much from that of the previous one. It also stated it doesn’t want nor expect a majority of two-thirds. One of its main Christian allies is likely to lose seats.

    Yet any expanded grip on parliament could give Hezbollah more sway over presidential elections later this year and over economic reform bills required by the International Monetary Fund, and even allow for amendments to the constitution.

This could lead to Lebanon being isolated at a crucial time. An economic crisis that has left three quarters of the country below poverty line is being blamed by many for political paralysis or corruption.

The country’s political loyalties are largely based on sectarian lines. Power is divided between Muslim and Christian groups, in a complicated system that aims to preserve a balance among factions who have fought against one another in the past.

‘FEELING LOST’

It was widely believed that Hariri’s January announcement of his intention to withdraw from politics, and that neither he or the Future Movement would be participating in the forthcoming elections was de facto a boycott by political heavyweights.

This move, which stunned supporters and foes alike, ended years of political problems for Hariri. Hariri’s waning fortunes are due to a decline of relations with Riyadh. Hezbollah grip has tightened and cut off ties with Hariri.

    “We shouldn’t forget that since 1992 in Beirut, people had one name on their lips – Hariri. Fouad Makhzoumi is a Sunni businessman who also serves as a member of Parliament and is currently running for a second term.

    “When it’s no longer around, what do you do?” He said. He said, “There is a feeling of being lost.”

Rafik was also an ex-premier and assassinated on 2005.

The Future Movement doesn’t call for a boycott but its strongholds are in Beirut with posters encouraging people not to vote. Its supporters also tweet similar messages.

    Turnout is expected to be particularly low in Lebanon’s Sunni majority districts, according to independent pollster Kamal Feghali.

    He told Reuters that about 30% of people who voted in those districts in 2018 have said they will not this year – with the highest level of disillusionment in Tripoli. Compare that to the national average of 20%.

    Future Movement founding member Mustafa Allouch told Reuters he understood the disdain on the streets, but said sitting on the sidelines was not the answer.

    The 64-year-old resigned from the party, delayed his retirement plans and chose to run as an independent because he feared the “vacuum” left by Hariri’s withdrawal would allow Hezbollah-backed lists to sweep in.

    “This is very dangerous, because it drops the electoral threshold and opens the door for those we talked about earlier, Hezbollah … to get seats and take control of the city,” he said.

    GRAND MUFTI CALL

    Sunnis and Shi’ites are estimated to account for just under a third of the population each, with Christians making up an estimated 40%. Election law prohibits candidates from running as individuals. Candidates must be on lists.

Future was elected to five out of the seven seats for Tripoli’s Sunni northern district, Akkar. On two different lists, four of the winners are back in office.

    As the vote nears, leading Sunni figures have focused on trying to boost voter turnout nationwide.

    Bahaa Hariri, Saad’s older brother and political rival, founded a movement known as “Together for Lebanon” that has been broadcasting advertisements across radio stations encouraging people to vote, without naming preferred candidates.

    In April, the religious head of Lebanon’s Sunni community, Grand Mufti Abdullatif Derian, declared in a sermon that all Lebanese should vote.

    Jawhari, the analyst, estimated the fragmented and disillusioned Sunni community could hand Hezbollah and its allies at least six, but up to eight, additional seats in parliament “without having to do anything”.

    They would need to get to 86 seats in order to secure two-thirds of parliament, which would shield them from any vetoes emanating from a “blocking third”.

    A Hezbollah source said the group had not yet decided who it would back as Lebanon’s next president and said it supported talks with the IMF but was against any “conditional” aid.

    The source added that Hariri’s withdrawal could be a boon to Hezbollah’s partners.

Source: “It is natural and logical.”