By Yew Lun Tian

BEIJING, (Reuters) – The city’s fight to contain a COVID-19 epidemic that has infuriated local residents and caused serious economic damage has left Li Qiang politically battered. But there are no signs of this.

Li, a long-standing ally to President Xi Jinping, has been considered destined for the Politburo Standing Committee. He is following a familiar path starting at Shanghai’s highest spot, which many analysts believe appears secure despite Shanghai’s COVID crisis.

Some Chinese officials’ careers have been affected by outbreaks. They did not have the same stature and history as Li, the chief of China’s largest city. Xi has risen through the ranks steadily.

Xi is China’s most powerful leader, but he still needs a solid core of loyalists to the Standing Committee.

It is clear that the opaqueness of Chinese politics, and Xi’s willingness to disregard precedent – he dropped presidential term limits – make it difficult to predict the once-in five-years Communist Party Congress this fall which will decide Xi’s next leadership line-up.

Li, at 62, is not associated publicly with the “slice–and-grid” approach to COVID. This was a Shanghai-based strategy to eliminate disruptive lockdowns. Shanghai authorities wanted to identify coronaviruses in particular areas to limit disruption.

However, this strategy did not work. The city’s 25-million inhabitants were hit hard by an increase in infections, prompting a complete reversal and a five-week-long lockdown.

People familiar with the situation said that Shanghai has increased its quarantine zone lockdown to eradicate infections from areas not under quarantine by this month.

USEFUL CHESS PIECE

Some social media users vented their anger at Li via posts to the Weibo (NASDAQ) site, such as “Shanghai Party Secretary should simply acknowledge his error and resign,” or “Shameless politician destroyed Shanghai”.

Li and the Communist Party’s Organisation Department (which is in charge for personnel) did not reply to any requests for comment.

Party bosses from Wuhan (where COVID was detected for the first time) and Hubei province were replaced by 2020. Following an outbreak which led to lockdowns, 31 of the top officials from Xian in northwestern China were sent to prison.

Shanghai sentenced 25 or more officials in the wake of its epidemic.

None of the Shanghai officials were at the top of the district, and the highest-ranking Xian official to be punished was the chief for health.

Charles Parton, an ex-british diplomat who is now a senior associate fellow at The Royal United Services Institute think tank said that “the people who will be held responsible for the Shanghai debacle will be those who have become politically dispensable.”

Alfred Wu, an associate professor at Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, stated that officials from other countries “would have been gone by now”.

Li can be trusted because Li is close to Xi, because he could use Xi’s chess pieces in the new leadership line-up, and because Shanghai’s party boss has a far higher rank that the bosses from other Chinese cities, Li will be in good hands.”

‘STEADFASTLY PERSIST’

Li was seen repeatedly on state media at hospitals and residential compound, where he was wearing an N95 mask and black jacket, as well as pants, which is the standard uniform worn by party leaders.

He reiterates his message at every opportunity: “We must resolutely execute the important instructions of Party Secretary Xi Jinping, and steadfastly continue in the dynamic zero approach.”

Despite the fact that the city continues to report thousands of COVID cases every day, the Standing Committee stated on Thursday that it believed the party could “surely win Shanghai” thanks to Xi’s COVID policy.

If Shanghai’s COVID fighting was to be hailed a victory, why shouldn’t Li who steadfastly implemented Xi’s method leading to the success be penalized?Chen Daoyin is a former professor of Shanghai University of Political Science and Law and he now works as a Chilean commentator.

Xi’s zero COVID policy has never been questioned publicly by senior officials. China is being more isolated as the Omicron virus spreads and China becomes less tolerant.

Despite all the challenges, China will likely continue to follow its hard-line policy at least through the party congress. Xi has the potential to secure a third term. He claimed China’s victory against COVID was a significant political accomplishment that shows China’s socialist model is superior to the West.

Li ultimately answers to only one boss.

Li is a Zhejiang native and was Xi’s chief secretary from 2004 until 2007, when Xi held the party boss position in the eastern coast province. In 2013, Li was elected governor of the province that is an economic powerhouse. This year, Xi’s presidency took effect.

After Xi had removed officials from Jiangsu province in a corruption crackdown, and was looking for someone to fill the political vacuum left behind, he appointed Li as provincial party chief in 2016.

Xi was promoted to Shanghai party chief the following year.

Every single Shanghai party chief from the late 1980s to today, including Xi Jinping, was eventually promoted to the Standing Committee.