By Martin Petty

(Reuters) – The Philippines will hold an election for a president on Monday. The incumbent vice president Leni Robredo faces Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Ferdinand Marcos Jr. was a dictator whose rule lasted 20 years and ended with a rebellion in 1986.

These are just a few of the problems at stake:

WHAT COMMITMENTS WOULD CANDIDATES MAKE?

Marcos will not rule as his father was, but strongman leadership is possible.

Rodrigo Duterte the incumbent, who was known for being a hardworking, thorough leader who always got things done, liked this method.

Marcos will likely leverage the power of his family and use it to secure power by making transfers and appointments in bureaucracy.

Robredo would be far more welcoming to Robredo’s congress and senate.

Robredo’s victory will bring more liberty and an emphasis on education, health, and equality for all, as well as strengthening oversight, market competition, and strengthening institutions.

She pledged to increase social welfare such as family support and unemployment benefits.

Robredo’s presidency could see turbulence. As a Vice President who challenged Duterte, she has been the target of hateful and disinformation campaigns.

WHAT IS THE ECONOMY?

Although neither candidate is likely to advocate significant economic restructuring both candidates have pledged that they will prioritise pandemic recovery. They could also target reforms in investment, like cutting red tape.

Robredo pledges to invest more to combat climate change and level the playing fields for businesses. He also plans to promote public-private partnership.

Marcos did not reveal much about his policy. Instead, Marcos avoided any presidential debates and any tricky media interviews. His focus was on the simple message of unity. For example, Duterte and Marcos are expected to continue working together on important infrastructure projects.

According to some consultants, there is a greater risk of corruption and nepotism in a Marcos presidency. However, the Marcos family has the ability to settle scores and take retaliation for businesses that are connected with their opponents.

What would FOREIGN policy look like?

Both candidates are unlikely to threaten the Philippines’ longstanding relationships to America’s former colonial power. They have been stable through Duterte’s many years of public hostility toward Washington.

Defense alliances are crucial to internal security as well as military capability. Maintaining them is important for the relationship of a Philippine president with the Armed Forces.

Marcos could be considered the closest candidate to China, and may benefit from China’s business interests. A two-way approach is preferred by Marcos, which will be more favorable for Beijing than the multilateral approach Robredo would prefer.

Marcos is pragmatic when recognizing that the Philippines cannot be matched militarily. So a hard stance shouldn’t be expected. Robredo will oppose Chinese provocations and remind Beijing of the 2016 international arbitration court decision that invalidated many of its South China Sea claims.

WHAT HAS DUTERTE DONE?

Duterte and Robredo have had a complicated relationship, however Duterte was characteristically open-minded over Marcos. He has both praised Marcos and challenged his leadership abilities.

Duterte is not an endorser of Marcos, nor any other candidates, but it’s crucial that he doesn’t try to harm his reputation or move against him.

Marcos’ big victory was the appointment of Sara Duterte Carpio as the vice president running mate. This allowed him to attract new voters and absorb some the incumbent’s social media cult following.

The dynamics between the two families have sparked speculation about a qud pro quo which helped Duterte secure the presidency, and in turn made it easier for Marcos.

It was notable that Duterte thanked Imee (politician and Marcos Jr.) for her support of his campaign, which she dismissed later as a joke. After years of failure, he praised the dictator occasionally and allowed the body to be transferred to the “heroes’ cemetery in Manila.

HOW IMPORTANT IS SUCCESSION IN DUTERTE

The Philippines is a country where political vendettas are very common. Ex-presidents can face criminal charges or even be jailed. Duterte has had a few adversaries.

They did not impact his popularity but Duterte’s presidency was filled with scandals involving appointees and allies.

Lawyer groups and activists blame Duterte in thousands of executions of drug users and pushers during his war against drugs. They could file legal action after he leaves office or lobby the International Criminal Court for a reopening of investigation.

Robredo, who has repeatedly criticized the president’s methods for fighting crime and drugs, would likely be more open to allowing investigations into Duterte. However, with Marcos as his vice president and Robredo in charge of the investigation, Duterte would be better protected.