By Tom Allard

JAKARTA (Reuters – Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the decisive winner in the Philippines presidential election Monday will reshape Southeast Asia’s relationship with China and the United States.

Marcos, who is also the namesake and son of China’s former dictator, enjoys long-standing ties to China. However, he seeks a new agreement with Xi Jinping for the disputed South China Sea waters.

Marcos’s relationship with the United States is complicated by his contempt of court ruling for refusing to cooperate with the District Court of Hawaii. This Court ordered Marcos to pay $2 Billion of the plundered wealth of Marcos Sr. in 1995.

The Philippines, which is part of the U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry, has a maritime region that includes a portion of the South China Sea. This waterway, strategic and rich in resources, is where China claims sovereignty.

An arbitral tribunal established under the International Law of the Sea in 2016 ruled in favor of the Philippines against China’s claim. This decision was seized on by other claimant countries as well as the U.S. with its allies who were concerned about China’s building of military installations in the waters.

Marcos stated that the ruling was not effective because China didn’t recognize it during interviews. To resolve their disagreements, Marcos said he would pursue a bilateral accord with China.

DZRH Radio was told by he that if the U.S. allowed to enter, China would be considered an enemy. “I believe that we can agree (with China). I actually have friends in the Chinese Embassy. “We have been discussing that.”

Antonio Carpio was the ex-Supreme Court Judge and led the legal team of the Philippines at the arbitration tribunal. He said Marcos’s position was “betrayal”.

“He took the side of China in the fight against the Philippines,” said he.

Rommel Banlaoi, an expert in security based in Manila, stated that Marcos (also known as Bongbong) wanted closer ties to China, but not at any cost of ceding territories.

“He is available to consult directly with China and to engage in bilateral negotiations to end their disputes,” he stated. He said that he is open to exploring areas for pragmatic cooperation with China including oil development in the West Philippine Sea.

China claims the West Philippines Sea as part of the exclusive economic zone for the Philippines in the South China Sea. Recent years have seen repeated clashes in this area between ships belonging to both countries.

‘FOND MEMORIES’

Banlaoi said that Marcos also wants to draw investment from China in his ambitious infrastructure plan.

“The Marcoses cherish their memories of China trips.”

Marcos’s dad ruled the Philippines 20 years from 1985 to 1986. He was close to America and began engaging in diplomatic relations with China, which were established in 1975. Marcos Jr. was 18 years old when he accompanied Imelda, his mother, to Beijing on a historic journey that helped pave the way for diplomatic detente. The footage shows Marcos Jr. beaming at Mao Zedong, the Chinese leader.

This was only the beginning of many such visits. The U.S. Embassy reported in a March 2007 cable to Washington D.C., obtained by Wikileaks that Marcos had “frequently traveled to the PRC in 2005/2006 to generate business.”

One month later, China established a consulate at Laoag City in China. This was the capital of Marcos’ fiefdom, in Ilocos Norte. Laoag City is home to just 102,000 people in a nation of nearly 110 million. It’s one of only two consulates located outside of Manila.

“COERCION & AGGRESSION”

To combat China’s aggression and coercion in Southeast Asia, the U.S. has increased its presence in these countries in recent months. More than 5,000 U.S. military personnel participated in exercises with Philippine counterparts between March and April. This was the largest exercise undertaken by American troops for seven years.

Renato Cruz De Castro from De la Salle university, Manila said that these maneuvers demonstrated how strategically imperatives had forced Rodrigo Duterte outgoing Philippine President to strengthen relations with Washington in spite of his animosity to former coloniser. Duterte, shortly after his election, called for the Philippines to be “separated” from America and courted China.

“Duterte realized that it didn’t matter if you appease China or not. According to him, they will still attempt to capture your maritime territory.” Although Marcos might be having issues with the United States (but), he will have to face restrictions from his bureaucrats, and the armed forces that really appreciate the alliance.

Marcos isn’t allowed to visit the U.S. in 15 years because of fear of possible consequences. His mother and Marcos are both facing contempt of court and a $353million fine. He and his mother will also be responsible for the $2 billion payment he has to 953 human rights victims. According to Robert Swift (the lawyer who filed the class action), only $37million was recovered.

“Someone might say to themselves, “OK, let’s lock this guy up.” Marcos stated that they were capable of doing so to Anthony Taberna (a Filipino journalist), in August. We don’t want to take this risk.”

Marcos spokeswoman did not immediately reply to questions about Marcos’s travel plans to America as President.

On requests from U.S. State Department, Department of Justice and Department of Justice for information about Marcos’ diplomatic immunity, they did not reply. Swift for his part expected to receive the customary immunity.

Greg Poling (director of Southeast Asia Studies, Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies), stated that “Bongbong Marcos’s victory will be met by disappointment among many people in Washington.”

It doesn’t alter the fact that U.S.-Philippines cooperation is vital and America must continue to work to strengthen it.

Banlaoi indicated that Marcos would work to keep the U.S.-allied alliance intact, while keeping his options open.

He said that, depending on the progress of the bilateral relations between the Philippines and U.S. under BBM, the possibility remains to renegotiated the mutual defense treaty,” using another name for Marcos.