Nelson Banya

HARARE (Reuters). Zimbabwean security guard Edwin Dapi struggled to support his family before a 11,000km (6,800 mile) conflict in Ukraine sent the global price of grains, fuel, and fertilizer soaring.

The monthly income of his 18,000 Zimbabwe dollar salary, or $55 at the black-market rate, used at informal markets such as many, is now stretched beyond breaking point.

The 46-year old was in Mabvuku’s poorest neighborhood, Harare. He worried about his next meal.

The 2-litre (0.55 gallon) vegetable oil bottle was too much for him. It cost 990 Zimbabwean dollar. For 390 Zimbabwean Dollars, he also bought a bag of flour weighing 2kg (4.4 lb).

He said that he keeps hearing it was because of Ukraine but he didn’t understand what it had to do with him, while grabbing oil and flour off his grocery list.

The United Nations warns that Russia’s invasion will lead to price increases in Africa. Tens of millions have been forced into poverty as a result of the COVID-19 Pandemic, Armed Conflicts, Climate Changes, and Economic Turbulence.

Sub-Saharan Africa accounted to nearly two-thirds, according to a Global Network Against Food Crises report. This month’s release was made by the United Nations/European Union.

Zimbabwe once-prosperous has struggled for food since being forced from thousands of black-owned farms by white farmers to resettle families. Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s late president, championed this policy in the 2000s.

Recent events have seen its economy be slowed by severe droughts, cyclones as well as rolling power cuts and currency shortages.

The U.N. World Food Program (WFP) estimates that some 5.3 million Zimbabweans – around a third of the population – are food insecure.

Dapi stated that he had plans to relocate his family from Harare to make ends meet. Mutoko is 140km (87 miles) north of Harare. He said, “I need to reduce my rent or school fees as everything is rising except for my salary.”

Food insecurity is increasing across Africa. Over 2 million children in Africa are at high risk of starvation. Horn of Africa is where Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia are experiencing their worst drought conditions for 40 years. U.N. Aid chief Martin Griffiths informed donors in Geneva that on April 26, more than 2,000,000 people are in danger of starving.

A civil war in Ethiopia has forced hundreds of thousands into poverty. South Sudan has millions of people at risk. The war which ended in 2020 left behind widespread destruction and was compounded by the worst flooding for generations. [L3N2NW2JD]

West Africa has its most severe food shortage in history. It is being caused by Islamist insurgencies which have driven thousands of West Africans from their homes in Burkina Faso and Mali. A number of droughts and floods have also been worsening in the region due to global warm. [L5N2W23Z3]

Even worse is the situation in Ukraine due to conflict.

War has caused disruption in shipping through the Black Sea. It is an important artery for grain and other commodities. The result was a halt to exports from Russia, Ukraine and Africa. The war has caused Ukraine to say that the crop area could be reduced by about a fifth.

Abebe Haile Gabriell, the assistant director-general and representative of U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization for Africa (FAO), said almost half of Africa’s 54 member countries are dependent on Russia and Ukraine as suppliers of wheat imports. Russia supplies at least eleven countries with fertilizer.

Abebe stated to Reuters, “The impact of this Ukraine war is overlapping a crisis which has already been occurring in some African nations.” We have a grim outlook for the future.”

‘DOUBLE JEOPARDY’

Food inflation had been threatening many families in Africa long before conflict in Ukraine. According to FAO, global food commodity prices rose by more than 23% in the last year. This was the highest rate of growth for over a decade.

The WFP buys 50% of all the wheat that it distributes to the rest of the world, and many people who are most in need rely on them. Rising food and fuel prices have increased its monthly operating costs by $71 million – a 50% rise – since 2019, said Tomson Phiri, a global spokesman.

He told Reuters that WFP is in double trouble: “Our costs are rising as more people become hungry,” he said.

Prior to the Ukraine war, the WFP faced a funding shortfall that forced it to cut rations in 17 African countries – including Zimbabwe, Chad, South Sudan and Ethiopia – and the gap has widened as donors turn their attention to the conflict in Europe, Phiri said.

Experts believe that the effects of grain shortages in North Africa could be especially severe, as countries such as Egypt are dependent on Russia and Ukraine for up to 80% of their grains.

Even countries in Africa that do not import much from the rest of the world are affected by rising global prices for important commodities.

Kenya was East Africa’s largest economy. However, the early effects were avoided by millers in Kenya after Russia raised taxes last year on wheat exports. Kennedy Nyaga is chairman of United Grain Millers Association.

Nyaga reported that Kenya had enough wheat reserves to last through September. However, it has run out of its staple maize due to drought.

This association has been pressing government officials to permit millers to export 360,000 tons maize duty-free. It claims that prices have increased from $24.17 per 90 kg bag (around 2,800 shillings) to $45.17 ($24.17) since December.

The Ministry of Agriculture in Kenya did not reply to our requests for comment. Ukur Yatani (Finance minister) stated that on May 5, he has yet to be contacted by the millers asking for tariff-free imports.

BASICS STRUGGLING

Zimbabwean households already feel the pinch. The Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency estimates that half the country’s 15 million inhabitants can survive on $1.90 a day.

Households’ struggles to afford food were compounded when the Grain Millers Association of Zimbabwe hiked prices for wheat flour and the staple maize meal by about 15% in March, citing surging global prices linked to the Ukraine war.

According to FAO, Zimbabwe gets most of its wheat imports from the Black Sea and Baltic Regions. Russia and Ukraine accounted for almost one-fifth last year.

Monica Mutsvangwa (information minister) stated that in March, the government bought enough maize and wheat stock from local farmers during the 2021-21 agricultural season to provide food security for those in need.

The millers association, however, imposed larger price hikes in April with 31% and 52% respectively for wheat flours and maize meals.

The company says that it is looking for alternate suppliers to import at least 155,000 tonnes until the October harvest.

Zimbabwe saw an explosion in inflation as fuel prices rose rapidly and currency devaluation was rapid. It was 61% in January, but 96% now.

Many farmers in Zimbabwe face difficulties affording fertilizer due to high prices and disruptions to Russian exports.

According to Zimbabwe Farmers Union, fertilizer prices have increased by 30% in the last year.

Maria Gallar Sanchez, WFP spokesperson for Zimbabwe said that if fertilizer prices stay at record highs it would also affect crop yield prospects in the 2022/23 year.

The Zimbabwe Information, Agriculture and Trade Ministries did not respond when asked.

Omnia Holdings is a fertilizer company that operates in several African countries. It stated that the prices for potash, ammonia and urea have risen by between 200%-400% from January 2021.

According to Omnia chief executive Seelan Gobalsamy, small-scale farmers have suffered the most, accounting for over 70% of regional fertilizer use.

Boniface Mutize is a farmer who cultivates maize and soybeans outside Harare. He said that he started to make his own fertilizer using chicken or cow waste mixed with zinc. He said that he still needs ammonium, but it isn’t available in Zimbabwe in high quantities.

He said that many small-holder farmers won’t be able next year to plant their own food.

($1 = 115.8500 Kenyan shillings)