The debate about whether central banks have boosted interest rates to a potential global slowdown is compelled by a flood of data coming from major economies.

The question of what happens next is being addressed by jittery crypto-currency investors who are dumping their risk assets in large numbers.

Below are the markets for this week: Ira Iosebashvili, Tom Westbrook, Elizabeth Howcroft and Sujata Ro in New York.

1 – HARD OR SOFT LOCKING?

At its next meeting, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates 50 basis points. Future data will show whether tightening the belt too much is going to result in a soft or hard landing for economy.

The U.S. retail sales data for Tuesday show a 0.7% increase in April, following a 0.5% monthly gain in March. Walmart’s Tuesday earnings reports (NYSE:) may reveal signs that inflation is pinching consumers, even though it shows the smallest hints of moderated growth. Home Depot (NYSE:) and Macy’s.

The Friday sales of existing homes could reveal how rapidly rising mortgage rates are cooling housing markets.

Hard landing fears have been fueled by the Fed’s insistence on containing inflation. This is the worst year for inflation since 2008. Any signs that rates are rising would be an encouragement.

U.S. retail sales https://tmsnrt.rs/3sv3ej0

2/CRYPTO CASH

Both cryptocurrency enthusiasts and observers will watch for signs of a dramatic price drop.

On Friday, the market was heading for its worst week yet. Others cryptocurrencies are also sliding as investors shun risk assets and central banks become more aggressive in fighting inflation.

Key is whether so-called stablecoins will be able to keep their dollar pegs while investor confidence drops. TerraUSD, the algorithmic stablecoin, broke its dollar peg. The coin plunged as much as 30 cents due to its complex balance mechanism which involved another non-free floating token.

Binance USD, meanwhile, is confident that they will not be affected by TerraUSD because of the fact that their cryptocurrencies have been backed with dollar-based assets. Investors will be more attentive to those reserves as they assess whether the coins are able to handle an influx of redemptions.

Bitcoin wipes out 2021 gains https://tmsnrt.rs/3L616oA

3/ TAKING ASIA’S PULSES A data pulse in Asia could help to re-calibrate regional asset prospects. Japan releases data on growth, trade, and inflation. They may beat all expectations and even the most conservative central bank in the world might reconsider their dovish stance, which would be good news to a fragile yen.

China releases data on industrial output, sales, and prices for houses, which is likely all very glum. China has its benchmark rates set, but traders believe steady is the best outcome. Australia’s wages and job figures are now out. The central bank did not wait for data to hike rates May 3, and the markets believe that more increases will be forthcoming. The rates are likely to hover around 3% for the year end, but any indications to the contrary may prompt a rethink of these expectations.

Data surprises pave markets’ path to hawkish rate bets https://tmsnrt.rs/3Fpv3yv

4. WHAT POWER ARE YOU ABOUT TO SPEND?

Problems for the consumer Consumers are in trouble due to rising fuel and food costs. The lockdown-era savings which could have gone towards travel and shopping are decreasing fast.

Economists believe COVID curbs in China will cause a 6 percent slump in April’s retail sales. That is nearly twice what March fell. Although April U.S. retail sales are forecast to increase, as with March, fuel and food might account for most of it.

GfK, a research company that studies British consumer confidence said March was the worst month in over 50 years. The cost-of living crisis likely exacerbated shoppers’ despair in April.

Global consumer discretionary shares dropped almost a third in this year’s global market, surpassing a wider equity index decline. Many investors have noticed and said they no longer bank on consumers.

Savings https://tmsnrt.rs/3P0KK3L

5/ PIPELINES & PAYMENTS

The pressures placed on Europe’s gas market shows no signs of abating.

Moscow’s sanction against Gazprom(MCX:) Germania. In which Gazprom the gas producer has given up ownership, EuRoPol GAZ SA (owner of the Yamal Europe Gas Pipeline), and Gazprom Gazprom have both caused prices to rise. According to a Kremlin order, Russian entities are prohibited from negotiating with sanctions-listed parties as of May 3.

This is affecting flows to Europe that have already decreased after Ukraine declared force majeure. The country said it won’t reopen an important gas transit route between Russia and Europe until Kyiv has full control over the pipelines.

The confusion over the payment scheme that Moscow instituted in March, and which was criticized by the European Commission as violating EU sanctions is still raging among EU gas company executives.

and gas prices https://tmsnrt.rs/3N82iJm