ISTANBUL (Reuters – Turkey’s industrial production was expected to increase 6.5% in March. It rose for a 21st consecutive monthly month, as factory activity continues strong despite rising inflation and a weakening local currency.

Since 2020, coronavirus controls were relaxed in the United States. Year-on-year, growth has been positive. The index fell 2.4% on a monthly basis in January because of power outages and industrial facility closures caused by a technical problem in Iran.

In March, the median estimate from seven institutions in the Reuters poll showed a 6.5% increase in year-on–year industrial production index.

The index was used as an indicator of economic growth and is forecast to rise between 2.5% – 12.5%.

According to economists, the rate of growth for the index will slow over the next months before it reaches a neutral point around the summer. After February, industrial production could be affected by a possible drop in demand from abroad or disruptions to the supply chain due to Russia’s invasion.

The initial coronavirus outbreak caused output to plummet by 30%. This was in April 2020. The sector has seen a steady recovery since the coronavirus wave. Most restrictions have been lifted by July 2013.

Turkey’s economy expanded by 11% in 2013, a significant increase from the previous year. However, a sharp fall in the value of Turkish liras in December caused serious disruption to company budgets and households, sending inflation skyrocketing via high import prices.

In 2022, growth will likely be affected by the currency crisis of late-2021 and its resulting rise to 70% inflation, along with fallout from Russia’s invasion Ukraine.

Both the government and central bank anticipate around 7% growth for the first quarter 2022.

At 0700 GMT, the Turkish Statistical Institute will release March production numbers on May 13th.