Kate Lamb

SYDNEY, (Reuters) – After the most devastating fires and flooding in Australia history, a new group of climate-conscious independents is threatening to disrupt the federal election. They are putting pressure on the government in key areas and could reshape the country’s political landscape.

In anger at lack of action by government in climate change mitigation, candidates have begun to campaign hard for environmental issues in order to attract moderate voters from other major parties. 

Allegra Spender (44) a candidate for independent in Wentworth’s wealthy Sydney electoral district said that “there is deep frustration at the lack of real action on climate change.” “It has become more ideological than it is based on science or business and that’s why people seek: an rational, proportional and reasonable response to the evidence.”

Spender, a former analyst with McKinsey & Co, is one of more than 20 independent candidates, predominately women, who are running for seats in traditionally conservative, mostly urban districts, and who draw some of their funding from Climate 200, a fund set up three years ago to back candidates looking to advance climate policy.

Half of these candidates now go by the name “teal independents” because of their appeals to moderate liberals but also to the ‘blue’ and ‘green’ views on climate change.

According to polls, the group’s environmental, anticorruption, and gender equality policies are gaining support among voters. This is in contrast with the existing parties that have avoided the issue of climate change for fear of losing voters. The country is the largest producer of gas and coal.

Scott Morrison, the leader of Liberal Party and who took office as prime minister in august 2018, appears likely to lose power, ending nine years worth conservative government. According to a poll, Labor Party could win more seats than the required 76 for majority government. According to the poll, the government’s current number could fall to 63 seats. The remaining 8 seats would be won by independents and minor parties. Uncertainty in the polls, like they did at the previous election, could lead to a hung parliament with independents holding the balance of power.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg – the country’s most senior finance minister and widely seen as the next leader of the Liberal Party – is in danger of losing his Melbourne seat of Kooyong to a teal independent, neurologist Monique Ryan, according to a recent poll. An independent candidate, Zoe Daniel (ex-journalist), is leading the poll for her Melbourne seat.

Spender seems to attract voters from all walks of Wentworth. This includes Bondi, and many of the most wealthy harbourside communities in the country.

Jess Daniel (36 years old) was asked what her number one priority is after voting in Bondi. “I have one little boy and I’m thinking about him. Not just now and then.”

Ian Tresise, after 58 years as a conservative voter, has taken the teal T shirt off and joined Spender’s 1,000-strong army. 

As he distributed flyers in a Bondi prepolling booth, he said, “The whole world is going to be cooked to 3 degrees.” It’s becoming pretty hot at 1.5. 

Paris Agreement was signed in 2016 and aims to reduce global warming below 2°C, or preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius, relative to preindustrial levels.

‘RACK and RUIN’

According to a Lowy Institute survey, 60% Australians believe that global warming is a pressing issue. This is up from 56% last year.

Though opinions differ greatly in places other than the major cities, such as those that were hit by some of the most severe natural disasters over the past few years, they are not shared in large numbers.

Conjola is a peaceful holiday resort on the South Coast of New South Wales. Some doubt that climate change was involved in the devastating fires and floods in Conjola during the “Black Summer” 2019-2020. These fires occurred after Australia’s hottest year and the driest on record.

Barry, aged 59, was one of the Conjola firefighters. For fear of being bullied by climate activists, he asked for his last name.

As in Conjola’s coal- and gas hublands, some are sceptical of climate science. They also have concerns about rising living costs and jobs, both which polls indicate remain the top priorities for voters. The first three months of this year saw inflation hit an all-time high of 20 percent. Voters feel the pinch when interest rates rise.

Each state has its own fossil fuel industry, which is an important employer. Australia’s central bank estimates that mining contributes 11.5% to the nation’s economic output. Accordingly, fossil fuels represent about 25% of all total exports.

Barry stated that “It is a climate change election and I want to vote to elect the government that will do the most.” Because closing down coal-fired power stations will result in the loss of jobs.

Samantha Kneeshaw (a Conjola high school science teacher) said that climate is the main issue she cared about in the election.

She said, “It’s going to cause racket and ruin for so many people.” “It is absurd that the government would go back into power and do nothing, as Australia is vital to this climate debate,” she said. 

LIMITING THE BALANCE

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in order for the Paris Agreement goals of keeping global temperature below 2 degrees Fahrenheit, it is necessary that the world reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2030. The goal should be achieved by 2050.

Australia’s carbon emissions are well below the international norm and it was called a “holdout”, by Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of United Nations. Australia declined to commit to either phasing-out coal or increasing its targets for carbon emissions reduction at the Glasgow global climate change conference last year.

Morrison’s coalition government, which includes Morrison, has committed to reducing emissions by 26 to 28% to 2005 levels by 2030. It also aims to achieve net zero emissions in 2050. They are among the less ambitious countries. There have been divisions among conservative ranks, raising questions about the government’s commitment to the targets. A Queensland senator of Nationals declared April the “death” target for net-zero 2050 by declaring it dead.

Many Australian politicians, fearing a backlash by some industry members and voters have shied away after years of fighting climate change.

On the campaign trail Barnaby Joyce (Deputy Prime Minister) stated that he wouldn’t use “transition”, which refers to the transition to cleaner energy because it “equals unemployment.” However, the Labor Party of opposition is slightly more ambitious and promises a 43% drop in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

Teal Independents have been able to push for more ambitious emissions targets, which has allowed them room. Already, the group is having an influence on politics and has made establishment parties defensive.

Matt Kean (New South Wales Treasurer, Energy Minister) warned voters not to vote against teal candidates.

Kean stated in an opinion piece in The Sydney Morning Herald that “to see what happens when progressive voices are taken from center-right political parties is to look at the Republican Party of the United States,” Kean wrote.

Frank Jotzo (climate economist, professor at Australian National University) said there is an overall shift to more robust climate change policies.

“The fact some of these climate-change independents are receiving so much attention and support from their respective electorates is going to shift the balance. It’s already shifting the balance between the parties they compete with, in particular The Liberal Party.”