Parisa Hafezi, Tom Perry, and Ghaida Ghantous

BEIRUT/DUBAI – Saudi Arabia’s losses to Iran’s allies at a Lebanese election are a rare bit of positive news for a country that Tehran is long ruled over. This could be a boon for Riyadh in a region where Tehran holds a lot of power.

Hezbollah’s 2018 defeat of the majority in parliament is a setback for this heavily armed organization, which has been a strong force in Lebanon for many years and enjoyed unwavering support by Shi’ite Iran. It may also present Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia new opportunities to regain control in Beirut.

After spending billions of dollars to gain influence in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia had mostly abandoned Lebanon. Iran, however, has grown its regional power via other proxy countries, such as Yemen and Iraq.

Analysts believe that Riyadh is more likely to tread carefully than fully re-enter a country in which the most powerful Shi’ite Islamist Hezbollah (founded by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards) remains Lebanon’s largest faction with weapons far superior to those of the national army, despite signs of renewed Saudi interest.

Hezbollah, along with its ally Amal held all the Shi’ite seats in parliament. Some of the country’s oldest friends, such as Druze and Christian politicians, have lost theirs. Hezbollah declared 2018’s result a defeat and called it a “political and moral victory”.

Although it is a minority in the new parliament’s composition, Hezbollah’s main rival in Lebanon, the Saudi-aligned Christian Lebanese Forces (Saudi-aligned) party won seats. Sunni Muslims who are similar to Hezbollah won seats.

Walid Bukhari, the Saudi ambassador to Lebanon said that results proved the logic of the state would prevail “against any statelet disrupting politics and stability”, which is a reference towards Hezbollah.

The fragmentation of parliament makes it difficult for Hezbollah or its allies, to control a legislative agenda, which includes the election of a Hezbollah-allied Christian as President Michel Aoun’s replacement later in the year.

Abdulaziz Sager of Riyadh-based Gulf Research Center said that the election had improved Lebanon’s situation but didn’t resolve Hezbollah dominance.

Saudi Arabia will remain cautious, and not rush to join the bandwagon. “They have been burned before,” he said to Reuters.

Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon has served as a strong support for Syria and other Iranian allies. This has created anxiety for Israel which has had to fight several wars.

Any reengagement of Gulf Arab States, headed by Saudi Arabia would be especially important for Lebanon. The country is currently in the midst of a devastating economic crisis that has been its worst since 1975-1990 civil war.

PRIORITY FOR IRANIANS

Mohanad Hage Ali, Carnegie Middle East Center’s Mohanad Hage Ali said that 25% to 30% of the new Parliament are strongly anti-Hezbollah. They also support Riyadh. “The impact of a large minority inside a hung parliament is certain to be significant,” he stated.

Saudi Arabia has options. They have stronger allies now than they did in 2018.

Lebanon emerged as a pivotal player in the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia after 2005’s assassination, by Rafik al Hariri (a Sunni politician that symbolised Saudi influence). Unanimously supported by the U.N., in 2020, Hariri was convicted of plotting to murder a Hezbollah participant. Hezbollah has denied that they played any part.

Riyadh paid tribute to Hariri and supported his son Saad (and allies) in their fight against Syria and Hezbollah. The result was armed conflict which culminated in the 2008 Hezbollah takeover of Beirut.

Riyadh slowly turned against Hariri, as he made deals with Hezbollah (and its allies), and briefly held Hariri in Saudi Arabia in 2017. Then, he cut him off. The detention has been extensively reported by Hariri and Saudi Arabia.

The Lebanese Forces became a strong Saudi ally after Hariri was expelled. As the biggest Christian group, its electoral success challenges the position of Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (Hezbollah’s primary Christian ally).

Hariri declared in January that he would be leaving politics. Sunni seats became split among allies and Hezbollah opponents, which included prominent anti-Hezbollah hawks.

Iran stated that it accepts the outcome of Lebanon’s election.

A senior Iranian official stated to Reuters that Hezbollah’s significant influence in Lebanon was a sign Iran’s allies won’t lose their power.

“It is too immature to say that because of this vote, a strong and influential group like Hezbollah will be weakened in Lebanon or Iran’s position will be weakened in the Middle East,” the official said.

ECHOES FROM IRAQ

It has led to comparisons to Iraq. An election in October amid public anger over corruption and poverty produced a weak showing for Iran-backed groups.

Iraq is currently in political paralysis. Analysts believe this will lead to Lebanon, whose sectarian systems mirror those of Iraq but that Lebanese could not afford as the hardships mount.

Sanam Vakil, an analyst at Britain’s Chatham House think-tank, did not believe Iran would be surprised by the result.

“For Tehran though, especially also after a challenging Iraqi election outcome, the bigger problem is how to maintain and assure electoral outcomes” that protect its interests, she said.

It comes as Saudi Arabia and Iran are holding direct negotiations to try and contain tensions. Iraq hosted five rounds of talks so far.

Tariq Al-Homayed a Saudi columnist wrote in Asharq Al Awsat newspaper that she was pleased with the election results for Iraq and Lebanon. However, she added, “The road is long.”

    Still, Lebanon did not appear to be a top Saudi priority compared to years gone by, said Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief at Annahar newspaper.

    “Without a doubt, we are a priority for Iran.”