(Reuters] -Central banks battle with inflation. Sliding stocks feel it. This leaves investors wondering where the “Fed put”, or central bank money, went.

Minutes of meetings with some of the top policy makers around the world may be a clue. Meanwhile, New Zealand and South Korean central bankers consider the size of their rate hikes to stay in line with the Fed. Washington has the keys to Russian sovereign default, as the crucial deadline nears.

We have a look at what the week holds from Ira Iosebashvili (New York), Kevin Buckland (Tokyo) and Dhara Ranasinghe.

1. FED THINK

Is the Federal Reserve capable of calming the most severe U.S. inflation since decades, without the risk of triggering a recession? Minutes of the bank’s May 25 meeting will provide clues.

Chairman Jerome Powell believes the Fed will achieve a soft landing — words which are not enough to comfort equity markets, as Wall Street banks continue to issue warnings about upcoming recessions. The Fed has raised rates 75 basis points in March and is likely to increase them by 50 basis points in July.

Powell has pledged that he will raise interest rates as high to contain inflation. These minutes will reveal how persistent policymakers expect inflation to become and whether growth can withstand tighter monetary policies. d0540c23-9a75-4d02-ae92-3fe82ae41c831

2. A BEAR HUG

Wall Street is melting. Major stock markets indexes have fallen by around 19%. The Nasdaq is down more than quarter of its November 2021 peak. There is no relief in sight. Barclays Goldman and (LON-:) predict more pain in equities due to surging inflation that will affect corporate margins.

There is widespread selloff. The bond bull market reached its peak in March 2020. A 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond of constant duration has lost 50%. Safe-haven gold, however, is up 6% for the quarter. Even the most experienced stock-pickers have resisted taking big risks due to rising volatility.

Bearish sentiment is also evident among institutional and retail investors. U.S. retailers are close to their March 2009 low, while fund managers run at the highest cash level since September 2011. 28777ec1-8ca8-4f21-841b-cc8a311c7baf2

3 PIVOT POINT

It is worthwhile to pay attention to forward-looking Purchasing Managements’ Index data (PMI), from the United States of America, Australia, Britain and Japan. It is more difficult than ever with central banks trapped between surging inflation, its effect on consumers and a dimming outlook due to China’s COVID Lockdowns and War in Ukraine.

China has shown remarkable resilience to the initial pandemic in 2020, thanks to its export boom and high factory output. However, it may be difficult to overcome this current slump.

Inflation fighters may be so entrenched that policymakers will have no choice but to concentrate on the risk of recession. The PMIs are showing signs of improvement, although they may be close to the turning point. 0d19436d-f480-4722-88e7-52be2c321b903

4/ EARNLY MOVERS CATCHING UPS

Although they were pioneers, it’s now that central banks of New Zealand and Korea must keep pace with the Fed by introducing big-step increases.

While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been widely reported to have raised rates by a quarter point Wednesday in order to control inflation, risks to the economy continue to rise with homebuyers experiencing the discomfort of higher mortgage rates.

    Korea’s new central bank governor roiled markets by flagging a half point increase before his maiden meeting on Thursday. A fall behind the curve can cause the delicate won to become more fragile, which could send energy and imported foods prices skyrocketing.

Bank Indonesia is expected to be one of the last holdouts when it meets on Tuesday. 1aad4ad9-979f-4bd5-96ae-ebe1605f22274

5/ RUSSIA’S FACES DEFAULT. AGAIN

With the expiration of the May 25 deadline for U.S. licensing allowing Moscow to make payment, there is a resurgence in concern about a Russian sovereign default.

Russia said that late Friday, Russia had made interest payments totaling $100 million to two-dollar bonds in order to avoid the deadline. Two days later, the coupons had to be submitted.

However, it will have to make more payments on its international bonds. This amounts to less than $2 billion for the year. The next installment will be due in late June.

Russia’s sovereign bonds of $40 billion are just one example of the many Flashpoints. The West imposed severe sanctions on Russia after it invaded Ukraine. Moscow countered with its own measures.

It is also important to know if gas will continue to flow to Europe. As firms try to verify how legal they can buy gas, they must pay in rubles. Payments are due May 20. While the EU warned companies not to open rouble accounts, they did not mention that it would break its sanctions against Moscow. Russia provides 40% of EU’s natural gas. 3b8d67e5-7c18-48bb-9949-7d11ce80bf7e5

Fed & 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investement survey – bulls vs bearshttps://tmsnrt.rs/3lqwdkoimage/jpeggraphics:graphic:1https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/znvneozkkpl/AAII.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GXID:znvneozkkplGlobal PMIs above 50 – but for how long?https://tmsnrt.rs/3llqyfkimage/pnggraphics:graphic:1https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xmpjoxlkovr/PMIS1905.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:xmpjoxlkovrRBNZ, BOK race to stay 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gas exportshttps://tmsnrt.rs/3PzHe0zimage/pnggraphics:graphic:1https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdpzyewzyvw/Russia%20gas%20exports.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GXID:gdpzyewzyvw