MKM Partners’ JCO’Hara says don’t be surprised if the market decline continues. The S & P 500 has fallen more than 17% in 2022 and is riding a seven-week losing streak — its longest since 2001. The Dow Jones Industrial Average , meanwhile, posted its longest weekly losing streak since 1923 — falling for an eighth straight week. Year to date, the 30-stock average has fallen 13%. On Friday, though, the major averages staged sharp recoveries after the S & P 500 briefly dipped into bear market territory — down 20% from a record high set in November. Wall Street tried to build on that momentum Monday, with the Dow and S & P 500 rising slightly. O’Hara stated in a note that O’Hara saw three indicators that suggest further selling Sunday night, which included the absence of a “capitulation point”. Although there is low volatility, the VIX should signal any severe stress by moving above 40. According to the firm’s chief marketing technician, “The volatility gauge averaged 25 years ago.” He also noted the selling thus far has been “orderly” — another sign that more losses could come. O’Hara explained that until signs show of a flush managers will remain patient. We are looking for a dip in breadth, followed by a surge in bullishness in the Advancing To Declining stocks. Before we take any actions. O’Hara also pointed out that volumes have been very weak in spite of the volume of sales. He stated that there was no indication of a “turning point” and that he did not see any. Summary: While Friday’s trading and Monday morning’s gains might point to a brief rebound after market steep declines on Friday, this is not likely the bottom that everyone wants.
