Memorial Day is the beginning of summer driving season. Drivers are already limiting their travels due to high gasoline prices.

Now, the national average price for unleaded gasoline in America is $4.599 per gallon. That’s just below the $4.60 record. AAA also reported a 40% rise in gasoline prices this year. This is well above last years $3.04 per gallon. Analysts predict that average gallon prices could rise to $5 per gallon in more states by the July 4th holiday.

Patrick De Haan from GasBuddy, who heads petroleum analysis, stated that “I don’t believe as many people will hit the road.” Although they should certainly be noticeable, my perception is that more people aren’t driving as far. People are staying closer due to high prices. It’s possible to work from home. It’s possible to work on the road for a subset of people.

Although the holiday weekend will be busiest in travel for two years, driving is still expected to remain below 2019. AAA expects 39.2 million people in total will travel 50 miles or more this weekend, an increase of 8.3% over last year. While there will be an additional 4.6% of drivers driving on this three-day weekend, it is still down 7.2% compared to 2019.

The prices of gasoline vary greatly across America, with an average price of $6.07 per gallon for California and $4.13 in Georgia. High prices have a negative impact on consumers. Analysts predict that they won’t fill their cars as often and could slow down price growth.

Some people have already stopped driving because of the high cost of gasoline. Government data shows consumers used about 8.8 million barrels a day of gasoline on average over the past four weeks — down from 9.1 million in the same period last year.

This goes back to 2012, 2011. [demand]De Haan, the data analyst for government data said that levels are not high enough. GasBuddy data has also shown slower-than-expected gasoline demand during the previous few days. De Haan predicted that Thursday would see a 4% increase in gasoline consumption, while drivers purchased 4% less fuel than the previous week. However, De Haan was expecting the demand to go up between 7%-10% because of drivers planning to travel on the holiday weekend.

He stated, “Based upon that, there is definitely demand destruction.”

Although the national average gasoline price was about 10% higher in May than it was in May last year, the cost was only a fraction lower over the past week and was flat for the previous seven days.

Bespoke Investment Group claims that it is the third-largest increase for May 2005. Additionally, the year-to date 40% price jump is greater than the historical average. The economy opened and gas prices rose 35% between Memorial Day 2005 and the start of this year.

The rise in inflation and prices has clearly affected consumers. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey,Thursday’s release showed a drop of 10.4% to 58.4.

“Consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest level in over a decade,” John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. John Kilduff of Again Capital, a partner said that consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest level since 2011.

The invasion by Russia of Ukraine has seen gasoline prices rise sharply. Russia is a key oil and fuel supplier for Europe. This has caused Europe to scramble to source supplies from other countries, increasing global supply constraints.

This is combined with a decrease in refining capacity and the global fuel supply is much lower than normal. Over the past few years, U.S. oil refineries lost approximately a million barrels per day of capacity.

Kilduff said that he believes high gas prices have made at least some people reconsider their purchasing decisions. The national average is $5 as of July 4th. We should see an upward trend from that point. It seems like history will repeat itself. They are running at an extraordinary rate. The refineries are running at 97% along the Gulf Coast and east coast, the main refining centres.

Memorial Day does not mark the end of summer travel. But, typically gasoline prices peak at this time. The Memorial Day holiday has seen record prices at the pump, however, inflation adjusted shows that the cost is at its highest point since 2012 according to Energy Information Administration.

“In the last 10 years on average, our peak was around May mid-May. … DeHaan stated that the peak time for demand could possibly be from mid-to late July. The overall market is tightening. “The supply is continuing to decline.”

According to some analysts, gasoline prices could peak. near or above $5 per gallonJPMorgan analysts predict a $6/gallon price, but this is not the case. Analysts suggest that demand destruction could already have an impact on the price. up 47 cents from a month ago, according to AAA.