(Reuters) – Europe’s gradual-in embargo rather than an immediate one on Russian oil allows Moscow to reroute volumes to customers in Asia over the next six-months, Russian traders and analysts said Tuesday.

On Monday, the European Union stated that its goal was to reduce Russian oil imports by 90 percent by next year’s end. However, it added that both piped- and seaborne supplies would continue legal up until that time.

Two-thirds of EU’s Russian crude oil supply is via tankers, and the other third via Druzhba.

Analysts in the West and EU observers described the sanctions as being watered-down, while Moscow felt a sense of relief.

The European Union’s measures look very threatening. However, they don’t seem to be likely to have a significant impact on Russia’s oil sector. They are not expected to take effect in the next six months. Analysts at Russia’s Sinara Investment Bank stated that Russian oil producers still have the time and resources to resolve logistics issues and shift their client base.

The report noted that Asia has been buying more Russian oil from Europe than Asia, while at the end 2021 the European Union had accounted for 60% Russia’s oil exports. This was roughly 3,000,000 barrels per daily (bpd), out of an overall total 5 million.

According to Sinara analysts, volumes to the EU dropped to 2.25 million BPD in March (1.5% million by sea and 750,000 through the Druzhba Pipeline), while some of its supply was diverted to China.

According to Moscow’s BCS Global Markets, Europe would need to search for alternative oil sources and establish the infrastructure necessary to replace Russian oil supply. However, a ban on Russian oil imports would not be possible within six to eight months.

It stated that large quantities of oil and other products from Russia will continue to flow to Europe in the next year, or two.

Since similar US measures were introduced in March by the United States, shortly after Moscow’s troops entered Ukraine, a EU embargo has been under discussion.

A source from a Russian oil company stated that “we had enough time to prepare.”

Although the EU embargo could lead to a decrease in oil production, I think its effects will diminish in one year.

The Russian oil industry has been resilient in spite of financial and trading difficulties resulting from Western sanctions.

According to Interfax, this month’s output rose after falling in March and April. The Interfax news agency quoted a source who was familiar with the information on Tuesday.

Sources in the trading industry said that volumes originally intended for Europe might be diverted towards Asia. In particular, India.

He said, “There won’t be major shocks for Russia.” India will take it all at the moment. China is the only country I don’t know how COVID will play out there.

A second trading source stated that the ban could have serious consequences.

He said, “There’s the clear possibility of stranglehold.”

When the EU’s latest sanctions have been formally approved, then it is time for an embargo. EU members are actively trying to achieve this by week end.