By Senad Karaahmetovic

Vijay Rakesh, a Mizuho analyst reiterated a Buy rating on Tesla (NASDAQ), and set a target price of $1,300.00 for each share. This was after a Fremont fieldtrip.

An analyst believes that Tesla will face near-term challenges as Giga Shanghai (which is 40-50% Tesla’s production capacity) continues to be in a restricted mode. However, this could set the stage for a “strong production rebound” in the second half of the year, says Rakesh.

“We believe TSLA has potentially ~1.4M of its 1.5M C22E target units that could be produced at just Fremont and primarily Shanghai as the major hub. We believe that Giga Shanghai’s reopening may be delayed due to the lockdown of Shanghai logistics and Shanghai residents. Headwinds in inter- and intra-city logistics will also make Giga Shanghai’s reopening slower than we expected. Our estimates are that April’s monthly deliveries fell by 22% to 51k in Jan, so the JunQ top-line could drop q/q. That said, we believe a potentially stronger SepQ/DecQ rebound is possible with improved supply chains and Berlin ramping,” Rakesh wrote in a client note.

Martin Viecha, VP at IR Tesla, also provided insights during the conversation.

Cobalt-free iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries are now ~50% used in TSLA models with the new 50% low-cost 4680 “could drive BETTER profitability.” Moreover, Rakesh also believes that Giga Berlin is “starting new Model Y shipments at modest levels.”

FSD is an FSD analysis that shows the estimated installed base of approximately 3 billion miles in imaging data and around 2.7 million Tesla electric vehicles as tailwinds for AI training.