These charts show Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed global oil
Leaders of the European Union reached an agreement this weekTo ban most Russian crude oil imports and petroleum products, however, nations had already stopped buying oil from Russia, thereby altering the global flow of the oil that is the powerhouse of the globe.
According to Kpler, some EU member countries had preemptively acted in anticipation of possible measures and Russian oil exports were already affected.
According to the company, Russian crude oil “on the water”, has risen to almost 80 million barrels in this month’s report. This is an increase of less than 30,000,000 barrels before the invasion by Ukraine.
“The rise in the volume of crude on the water is because more barrels are heading further afield —specifically to India and China,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst for the Americas at Kpler.
He added that “Prior the invasion of Ukraine a lot less Russian crude was being moved to Northwest Europe than it is now.”
The energy market has been shaken by Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine. Russia is the biggest oil exporter and importer of products and energy in the world. Europe has a special dependence on Russian fuel.
EU leaders have been discussing a sixth round in sanctions for several weeks. However, a possible oil embargo has become a sticking point. Hungary wasn’t among those nations to agree to the blanket ban. Viktor Orban is a Russian ally and Prime Minister. ban on Russian energyIt would be: “atomic bomb”For Hungary’s Economy.
The agreement reached Monday by the leaders of the bloc targets Russian seaborne oil, but leaves room for other countries (including Hungary) to continue their imports via pipeline.
Oil prices rose to their highest point since 2008 in March as oil buyers worried about energy availability given tight market conditions. The pandemic has seen a rebound in demand, but producers have maintained a steady supply, which means that prices are now higher than they were before the outbreak.
RBC Tuesday said in a note sent to clients that Russia’s invasion has caused a breakdown of the way the world market sources barrels.
In March, the International Energy Agency stated that three million barrels per dayRussian oil production was in danger. Although these estimates were later revised downwards, data from before the EU agreed to ban Russian oil shows that Russian fuel exports to Northwest Europe have already dropped off the cliff.
Russian oil, however, is finding buyers, at least temporarily, because the Urals crude from Russia trades at a discounted rate to international benchmarks Brent crude.
Kpler reports that more oil than ever heading towards India and China.
Wolfe Research agreed, noting that, while Russian oil production is down since the outbreak of war, the exports are still “surprisingly resilient.”
According to the company, Russia has reverse-routed its exports to India. India is also a major source of vessel traffic through Suez Canal. Sam Margolin led the analysis and noted that traffic through this key waterway has increased 47% in May over last year.
According to the company, “Rerouting Black Sea Tankers down Suez instead of Europe is a longer route which can be inflationary to oil price and these last resort’ trading patterns can portend larger supply problems in future because market is clearly down its last options to clear.”
Gabriel Cortes of CNBC contributed reporting.