Silvia Aloisi, Pavel Polityuk

KYIV (Reuters). -Turkey stated Wednesday that a United Nations plan for a sea route to transport grain from Ukraine was reasonable, but needed more discussions with Moscow and Kyiv in order to make sure ships are safe.

Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine halted Kyiv’s Black Sea grain exports and threatened to create a food shortage worldwide. Both sides must agree to a corridor, including maritime neighbour Turkey and NATO member Turkey.

However, there are significant hurdles that must be overcome to reach a agreement. These include convincing Russia to relax its blockade at Ukrainian ports. Kyiv to clean up the mines it had laid. And then convincing shipping and insurance firms that the corridor is safe for use. The time is running out and there’s very little storage available to store the harvest that Ukraine will be producing at the end.

Why is UKRAINIAN GRAIN EXPORTS Important?

Nearly a third (or more) of the global wheat supply is held by Russia and Ukraine. Their importance has been underlined by both an Indian export ban, as well as bad weather conditions in North America or Western Europe.

Together with Western sanctions against Russia’s actions, the war has sent prices of food, fuel, oils, fertiliser, and energy skyrocketing.

It is also threatening to create a crisis of food in countries that are less developed, such as those who rely more on Russia or Ukraine for their wheat imports.

Ukraine is also an important exporter of corn and sunflower oil. Belarus and Russia, which have backed Moscow during the conflict and are also subject to sanctions, account for more than 40% of all global crop nutrient potash exports.

WHAT TYPES OF GRAIN ARE STUCK IN UKRAINE

Ukraine’s largest industry is grain. Its 2021 exports reached $12.2 billion, accounting for almost a fifth.

Ukraine exports 98% of its cereals & oilseeds through the Black Sea prior to war. This was at a pace of as high as six million tonnes per monthly.

The country can only export two million tonnes per month due to the difficulties of the rail system and ports being blocked, Taras Viysotskyi (Ukraine’s first deputy minister for Agrarian Policy and Food), said this week. Official data shows that Ukraine’s exports of vegetable oils, grain and oilseeds rose by 80% over May but are significantly lower than May 2021.

Washington accuses Russia of using Ukraine’s food to fuel its war on the West. According to the Kremlin, the West is responsible for triggering the current crisis through imposing sanctions on Moscow.

As of May 1, 22 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain had been stuck due to the blockade and infrastructure problems. Due to an enormous funding gap, U.N. agencies have to reduce food rations to refugees in some parts of Sahel because prices are rising.

HOW PROFESSIONAL IS THE U.N. PLAN to GET GRAINS OUT

Mevlut Cavusoglu was positive about Wednesday’s meeting between him and Sergei Lavrov, the Turkish foreign minister. However, he said that further talks are needed.

Lavrov indicated that Kyiv should solve the problem by removing its mines from its ports and allowing grain to be exported. Russia with the help of Turkey will make sure shipping is safe, Lavrov said.

Kyiv insists that it requires “effective security assurances” to start shipping, and expressed concern about Moscow using the corridor for accessing the port at Odesa.

Serhiy Ivashchenko is also the director UGA of Ukrainian grain traders union. He stated Wednesday that Turkey, which boasts the second-largest army in NATO as well as a large navy, was not strong enough to provide safe passage.

It could take two to three months for mines to be removed from Ukrainian ports. He suggested that both the Turkish and Romanian navy should participate.

ARE ANY OTHER HURDLES AVAILABLE?

Even if an agreement is made, it’s likely that insurance costs will be prohibitive for vessels crossing the Black Sea shipping routes.

Due to a lack of storage space for grain in Ukraine, the situation is now more urgent. According to APK-Inform, up to 35% of Ukraine’s total storage capacity (61 million tonnes) could be still available for the 2021 harvest. This is according to the research center.

WHY CAN’T GRAINS BE DRIVEN OUT OF UKRAINE ABY LAND

Ukrainian rail systems operate on different gauges from European neighboring countries like Poland. Therefore, grain needs to be moved between trains when there is not much storage space or transfer facility.

Kyiv is also increasing efforts to ship through the Constanta port in Romania’s Black Sea. Mid-May saw only 240,000 tonnes (1%) of Ukraine’s grain pass through.

The complex, expensive process of rerouting grain from Romania to Romania requires transporting by rail to port on the Danube and loading cargoes onto barges to be transported to Constanta.